1. Remember How Foreign Policy Was Supposed To Be Bush's Strong Suit?
* Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of 1,001 likely voters for Democracy Corps, released September 16, 2003 (conducted September 9-14, 2003) * CBS News poll of 675 adults, released September 18, 2003 (conducted September 15-16, 2003) * Princeton Survey Research poll of 1,001 adults for Newsweek, released September 20, 2003 (conducted September 18-19, 2003)
Remember how foreign policy was supposed to be Bush's strong suit? And how only the economy could really drag him down? Well, the economy's still dragging him down (his approval rating on the economy is a dismal 41 percent, with 52 percent disapproval), but now his ratings on foreign policy and Iraq are getting almost as bad.
In the latest CBS News poll, just 47 percent approve of his handling of foreign policy, while 44 percent disapprove (independent voters, a proxy for the coveted swing voters Bush needs to get reelected, give him an even worse rating: 39 percent approval to 47 disapproval). And, for the first time, his approval rating on the situation in Iraq is more negative than positive, 47 percent disapproval to 46 percent approval (independents are more negative, giving him 50 percent disapproval to 38 percent approval).
Maybe that invasion, which always had huge substantive problems, was also a dumb idea politically.
Other findings underscore the precariousness of the Bush administration's current position. By almost three to one (64 percent to 22 percent), the public doesn't believe that the administration has yet developed a clear plan for rebuilding Iraq. That's a big shift since late April when the public was split down the middle on this question.
The public also has shifted now to the view that the result of the war with Iraq was not worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq (47 percent to 43 percent). And, again, among independents, the judgement is even more negative: 50 percent feel that the result of the war wasn't worth the cost, compared to 41 percent who think that it was.
As for Bush's $87 billion request for additional funds to rebuild Iraq, the public is overwhelmingly opposed to spending this money (66 percent to 26 percent). They tend to believe that spending this money will mean cuts in spending on programs such as education and health care (48 percent), rather than that it is affordable without such cuts (37 percent). And, of three options presented to the public to pay for the rebuilding of Iraq, eliminating the recent tax cuts is the only one that seems remotely salable politically (53 percent disapproval). The other two options, increasing the deficit and cutting spending on domestic programs, receive stratospheric disapproval ratings of 72 percent and 82 percent, respectively.
The Democracy Corps poll illustrates the depth of Bush's current difficulties and how much the political climate has shifted in recent months. Perhaps the most interesting findings in the poll are comparisons between public opinion before and after Bush's recent Iraq speech requesting $87 billion more for the occupation, and between public opinion today and before September 11.
Start with the pre-speech/post-speech comparison. Public Opinion Watch has pointed out previously that this speech seemed to go over like a lead balloon. Here's more confirmation: before the speech, 50 percent thought Bush was honest with Americans about the dangers and threats Iraq posed before the war; after the speech, the same 50 percent thought so. Much worse, before the speech, by 50 percent to 44 percent, the public said that they could trust what Bush is saying about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq; after the speech, that flipped to 53 percent saying that they couldn't trust what he said and 43 percent saying that they could. In addition, before the speech, people already thought, by a margin of four points, that Bush didn't have a plan to win the peace and bring the troops home; after the speech that margin widened to twelve points. Finally, on the key question of whether the war in Iraq was worth the cost of U.S. lives and dollars, before the speech a narrow majority of the public (51 percent to 42 percent) said that the war was worth these costs; after the speech, that narrow majority turned into a even narrower plurality (just 49 percent to 45 percent).
It's been remarked that Bush's poll ratings in most respects seem to be returning to about what they were prior to the September 11 terrorist attacks. That's true, and in some cases they're actually worse. The public is now ten points less likely to think that Bush is honest and trustworthy; seven points less likely to think that he is moderate, not extreme; six points less likely to think that he is for working and middle class families; and five points less likely to think that he "cares about people like you." In addition, the public is twelve points more likely to think that he has a go-it-alone policy that hurts our relations with our allies.
Similarly, when comparing the ratings on which parties are trusted to do a better job on the issues, Democrats now have the same leads or better that they had prior to September 11 and Republicans are not doing much better today than they did then. Democrats are favored by thirty-five points on the environment today (thirty-three points before September 11), by twenty-six points on Medicare (the same as previously), by twenty-four points on health care (twenty-one previously), by twenty points on retirement and social security (sixteen previously), by twenty points on prescription drugs (twenty-two previously), by twenty points on the federal budget and deficits (just three previously), by twelve points on the economy (three previously) and by eleven points on education (seven previously). For the Republicans, they are favored by six points today on taxes (but were favored by twelve points before September 11) and by twenty-two points on keeping America strong (but they were running a sixteen-point lead even before September 11).
The conclusion is inescapable. Much of the Bush's political capital from September 11 has been dissipated. More than anyone would have thought a year ago, the 2004 election seems likely to be fought on the actual merits and demerits of the entire Bush presidency, not just the two months after September 11. And, in Public Opinion Watch's opinion, that's pretty bad--extremely bad--news for Bush.
Illustrating this diminution of political capital, Bush's overall approval rating in the new Newsweek poll is down to 51 percent, heading for the sub-50 percent territory first reached by the Winston Group poll reported last week. And we have a bit of a milestone in terms of his reelect number in this poll. For the first time, we have 50 percent saying that they would not like to see Bush reelected to another term as president (44 percent say that they would).
Then, consider his approval ratings in other areas. He gets a dreadful 38 percent approval on the economy, with 57 percent disapproval. Incredibly, his rating on taxes is not all that much better, with 42 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval. Imagine that-on taxes!
His rating on health care is also abysmal, with 37 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval. And his ratings on education and the environment, two domestic issues where his ratings have been at least mediocre, are heading into the danger zone. His education rating is 46 percent approval with 43 percent disapproval, for only a +3 margin, down from +14 in late July. And his environmental rating now has higher disapproval (44 percent) than approval (43 percent). Yet in late July, approval of his job on the environment was still running nine points ahead of disapproval.
And then there's foreign policy. Consistent with the CBS News poll discussed above, his rating in this area in general is now just 48 percent and his rating on Iraq in particular is now net negative with 46 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval.
Not that Bush still doesn't have areas of strength, of course. His rating on "policies to prevent and minimize terrorism at home" is still a robust 66 percent and hasn't fallen much since late July. Considering how little the Bush administration actually has done on the homeland security front, a rating this high is pretty amazing--and indicates an area where Democrats need to get to work and develop a critique that bites out of the abundant raw material.