> > How do you know the resistance isn't indicative of the wishes of most
> > Iraqis?
> >
> > Seth
>
> Well, I don't "know" (in the Cartesian sense of absolute certainty) that
it
> isn't, but the Iraqi opinion polls I've seen, and the interviews with
> ordinary Iraqis I've read, seem to provide pretty good evidence in support
> of my conclusion.
>
> -- Luke
Been meaning to post this.
In this survey, commissioned by USAID, about half of Iraqis asked about the resistance gave answers indicating some degree of sympathy (i.e., fighters are provoked by US mistreatment, or are resisting occupation, etc.) while fewer than a third gave answers probably indicating opposition to the resistance (i.e., fighters are Ba'athist remnants).
Seth ---
Financial Times (London,England)
August 4, 2003, Monday London Edition 1
SECTION: EUROPE & MIDDLE EAST; Pg. 5
LENGTH: 467 words
HEADLINE: Iraqis sceptical over US explanation for continuing attacks on coalition
BYLINE: By CHARLES CLOVER
DATELINE: BAGHDAD
BODY: Fewer then a third of Iraqis believe the armed attacks against coalition forces in their country are attributable to former Ba'ath party operatives turned guerrilla, as US officials suggest, a public opinion survey suggests. The study reveals scepticism among Iraqis at the US-led coalition's version of the postwar violence, which US General John Abizaid likened to a "classical guerrilla campaign" in remarks last month.
"We're fighting Ba'athist remnants throughout the country. I believe there's mid-level Ba'athist, Iraqi intelligence people, Special Security Organisation people, Special Republican Guard people that have organised at the regional level in cellular structure," he said on July 16.
US officials have yet to produce much public evidence but many Iraqis believe the guerrillas are a new phenomenon, fuelled by nationalism, Islamism, and revenge.
According to the survey, by the Iraq Centre for Research and Strategic Studies (ICRSS), an independent think-tank in Baghdad, 22 per cent of Iraqis believe the attacks are actually provoked by coalition forces' behaviour, while 25 per cent believe them to be the work of "resistance forces" - a word which in Arabic implies a degree of sympathy for the attackers.
The data are particularly interesting if concentrated on the cities of Ramadi and Falluja, where many of the recent attacks have happened. There, fewer than 5 per cent of those surveyed saw former regime sympathisers behind the attacks, 36 per cent said the attacks were provoked by US forces, and 52 per cent named "resistance" as chief cause.
If the impressions of those surveyed are true, the postwar violence faced by the coalition in Iraq is a more complicated phenomenon than US official analysis would suggest.
According to most public opinion research conducted thus far in Iraq, most Iraqis do not want coalition forces to leave, and there is broad support for the demise of Saddam Hussein's regime.
But some behaviour by coalition troops and failure to restore services in much of postwar Iraq have eroded public support for the US-led military presence.
"Iraqis can't live with the coalition forces or without them just yet," is one of the conclusions of a study of focus group interviews by the US National Democratic Institute published last month, which found "no support for current attacks" but that the behaviour of occupation troops sometimes had a negative effect on opinion.
The ICRSS results varied from region to region, with predominantly Shia and Kurdish areas tending to support the argument that former regime figures were responsible for the violence, more so than in Sunni areas.
Overall, 2,400 Iraqis in seven cities across Iraq were surveyed by ICRSS. Full results of the survey are to be released on Wednesday.