[lbo-talk] real estate bubble?

Jordan Hayes jmhayes at j-o-r-d-a-n.com
Fri Sep 26 16:37:43 PDT 2003


Doug asks:


> But if the broad housing market - 68% of U.S. households
> own their dwelling - is supported mainly by the incomes of
> the top quintile, how sustainable can that be?

I think a lot of the analysis I've read of the so-called "housing bubble" ignores a rather startling fact: it's easier to own a house today in the US than ever before. Just because people are "paying up" and "getting big mortgages" doesn't mean they can't afford it -- it's also possible that they were _unable to get a mortgage in the past_ despite being "able to afford it" ...

The drop in interest rates, the rise of FICO-type scoring and the demise (not entirely, but) of redlining (not entirely two unrelated items, but) mean that people who are today as credit-worthy as they were 10 years ago can get a house today and couldn't then.

So sure, these numbers look "interesting" -- but maybe it's just a one-time flurry of purchasing by those who would have a long time ago if they hadn't been victims of unfair lending practices. Pent-up demand getting filled.

Of course on the other hand, maybe a good FICO score overestimates people's ability to pay: but that's not an individual problem, that's a lender problem; hopefully they are hedging against that ... :-)

/jordan



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