> States can *maybe* be deterred. Non-state actors who believe that God
> wants them to bring on the apocalypse cannot. We're going to lose one or
> more cities to nuclear blasts someday
What makes you think non-state actors will ever get nuclear bombs? They take lots of resources to make, and it's already easy enough to detect the making process that it is inconceivable that a private group could get past the sine non qua stage without it being realized that they'd gotten there. That will be more true in the future.
Without the assumption that non-state actors can build their own bombs, the certainty in your statement is unjustified by what you've said so far. Do you want to base it on other assumptions?
I think it would be fairer to say that it's possible for a bomb to be set off, just like it was all through the cold war, and it's preventable, just like it was all through the cold war. I think there is clearly less chance of it happening today than there was during many moments during the cold war. And as for the future -- that depends on how we collectively shape it with that threat in mind.
Michael