<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=windows-1255"> <META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Apparently this is the lowest voter turnout in Israeli history.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just now, Yossi Sarid (head of Meretz) said he would step down in the coming days if the number of mandates for the party stays around the level of what it showed in the exit polls.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There is a theory being bandied about now that the center/right in Labour will pressure Mitzna to step down and then they will join into a secular coalition with Likud and Shinui (and that the Bush Administration is pressing for this result)...which is Tommy Lapid's wet-dream...Tommy just spent several minutes of his speech taunting Mitzna to join a coalition with Likud, saying that anything else would 'destroy the economy and give the government to extremists.'</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>However, Sharon could set up a narrow majority coalition with the parties to his right and have anywhere from 67-72 seats.  There is no way to know which way that Likud will want to go with this and I am sure that they are going to weigh all there various options.  </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For them to be in a coalition with Shinui, they would have to leave out all of the religious parties from the coalition (with perhaps the exception of the National Religious Party, which Shinui is somewhat less troubled about because they are nationalist, go to the Army, work, etc...the usual lack of these which is Shinui's big problem with religious parties)...however the religious parties are the traditional and most ideologically connected partners of Likud historically and they may not be willing to give up on this connection...rejecting a coalition with any of the religious parties may piss off a large portion of the Likud constituency, even those who tend towards more secular positions (for instance the Mizrahim are in large part Likud backers, and while they aren't necessarily religious, they do have religious tendencies and would be hurt by Likud rejecting 'tradition')...plus the religious parties wouldn't be as fickle suppoters of a coalition with Likud as would Labour or Shinui...who knows how long Labour and Shinui will find it utilitarian to continue a coalition with Likud.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>On the other hand, being tied in a narrow coalition with the religious and right puts Likud more in a bind because if even one of the small parties pulls out of a coalition, they endanger the Likud majority, so the small ultra-right/religious parties will have a lot of power to dictate policy/budget.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Further, Likud may not want to be tied into a right wing coalition that will make Likud look even worse on the international scene, and also perhaps make the U.S. Administration look bad (worse) as allies by proxy. Labour and Shinui give a Likud run government a slightly enhanced air of legitimacy...</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Who knows what is going to happen...I just presume it is going to make the situation worse economically/securitywise/human-rights wise either way and anyway...</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>As to Shinui, Tommy Lapid is a long time media personality...his son Yair has a REALLY bad evening talk-show.  Shinui are for mass privitization of the economy and are interested in ending all forms of welfare. They are for keeping a good portion of the occupied territories (annexing the large settlement blocs), they are against<BR>any form of unilateral withdrawl, etc. Shinui voted in favor of the 2003 State Budget. It supports widespread privatization of government corporations and the prevention of government interference in commercial matters and the party supports government support for entrepreneurs.  In there campaign commercials they complain about how the Middle class is forced to pay for the college tuition for the poor, etc...They don't want religious parties because they see them as welfare parties...as I said, they have less of a problem with the NRP which is a religious party.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bryan</DIV> <DIV><BR><BR></FONT><FONT face="Times New Roman">Dennis says:</FONT></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman">Bryan, could you tell us more about Shinui? I just saw one of their reps on CNN rule out any coalition with the ultra-Orthodox parties, and he stated that Shinui was committed to secular government. When the CNN reporter pressed him on Iraq -- "If there's a war, will you in the interest of national unity work with the Orthodox parties?" -- he smiled and said that would have to be seen.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman">DP</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>