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<DIV>Spain's leader about to go the way of Blair (see previous post). Who says
protest doesn't have an impact?</DIV>
<DIV>CK</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=5></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><STRONG><FONT size=5>Supporters desert Aznar as Spaniards
reject conflict</FONT></STRONG><FONT size=3> <BR><BR></FONT><FONT
face=Geneva,Arial,sans-serif size=2><B>Giles Tremlett in Madrid<BR>Tuesday
February 18, 2003<BR><A href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/">The Guardian</A></B>
<BR><BR></FONT><FONT face=Geneva,Arial,sans-serif size=2>Spain's prime minister,
Jose Maria Aznar, was coming to terms yesterday with the fact that his
unswerving support for George Bush on Iraq had inflicted heavy political damage
that could cost his conservative People's party its hold on power. </DIV>
<P>Ministers admitted that the government's position was "causing significant
electoral damage" and Mr Aznar's wife, Ana Botella, was quoted as saying his
party was going through "one of the worst moments in its history".
<P>Between 2 million and 3 million people took to the streets of Spanish cities
to protest at the weekend in what was said to the biggest overall turnout in the
world. As many as one in 15 Spaniards marched.
<P>More significantly for Mr Aznar, opinion polls have shown that, for the first
time since securing a clear victory in elections three years ago, the Socialists
have overtaken the People's party in voting intentions.
<P>Mr Aznar also faced embarrassment yesterday when it was revealed that in 1997
he had offered to pay Baghdad in "aid" if it gave oil contracts to the
Spanish-owned Repsol company. The government was ready to make a "donation" if
Repsol was given a concession in the Nasiriya field, despite the fact that the
UN had just issued a series of resolutions condemning Iraq's continued blocking
of inspections, according to El Mundo newspaper, which quoted official
documents.
<P>The amount of money involved was described as "a sum to be set later". But
Repsol never managed to close the deal.
<P>More than any other political leader in Europe, with the exception of Tony
Blair, Mr Aznar is flying in the face of popular opinion. An El Pais newspaper
poll two weeks ago showed 69% of Spaniards were against even a UN-backed war.
Nearly two-thirds of the People's party's own voters opposed war.
<P>The Socialist opposition has called him to vote against war at Nato and the
UN security council.
<P>Mr Aznar's personal conviction that Saddam Hussein still possesses chemical
or biological weapons appears to remain unshaken. This, government officials
said, was partly due to the private conversations he has had with Mr Bush and
top US officials, who see him as one of their most important diplomatic allies.
<P>He has also argued that for a government that has made domestic terrorism its
No 1 priority, the alleged relationship between President Saddam and
international terrorism cannot be ignored.
<P>Few observers expect him to change his opinion. Far from backing down, Mr
Aznar explained his position in leaflets inserted into daily newspapers at the
weekend. Illustrated with pictures of the blazing twin towers, they said only
that the government considered a new UN resolution as "possible and desirable",
rather than a prerequisite to invasion.
<P>The extent of Mr Aznar's commitment to a possible war against Iraq was
underlined yesterday with the publication of photographs showing the
construction of accommodation for 600 new military personnel at a US base in
southern Spain.
<P>Protesters in Madrid taunted the prime minister on Saturday with chants of
"Mr Aznar, send your own sons". Yet, despite his stance as a leading European
hawk, Spain is unlikely to play a significant military role in a war.
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