<HTML>This half sounds like total spin to avoid the conclusion that average Russians are voting with their pocketbooks because of the situation in Iraq. It would occur to me to check out how much of dollar holdings in Russian are individual vs corporate / business accounts. I am guessing that is not the easiest number to come up with. It also seems possible that there are a mix of reasons why corporate accounts are still sticking with the dollar. One reason might be that there are probably a fair number of administrative costs associated with a big switch for the short term. So if the situation in Iraq goes badly, would there likely be more corporate switching? DoreneC In a message dated 3/18/2003 11:13:34 PM Pacific Standard Time, chrisd@russiajournal.com writes: <BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">Subj:Russians ditch dollar for euro Date:3/18/2003 11:13:34 PM Pacific Standard Time From:<A HREF="mailto:chrisd@russiajournal.com">chrisd@russiajournal.com</A> Reply-to:<A HREF="mailto:lbo-talk@lists.panix.com">lbo-talk@lists.panix.com</A> To:<A HREF="mailto:lbo-talk@lists.panix.com">lbo-talk@lists.panix.com</A> Sent from the Internet Moscow Times March 18, 2003 Dollar Dethroned as Top Saving Tool By Victoria Lavrentieva Staff Writer It only took two years for a new suitor to end Russians' monogamous love affair with the dollar. On balance, Russians bought more euros than dollars in January for the first time since the European currency's notes and coins became available Jan. 1, 2001, according to the latest Central Bank data. While in gross terms, Russians bought more dollars from retail banks than euros in the month -- $1.193 billion versus 701 million euros -- they also sold more. The result is that 598 million euros made its way into the hands of the population, compared to just 438 million bucks. Worried by the continued weakness of the greenback, which has lost more than 10 percent against the euro in recent months and 1.3 percent against the ruble since the beginning of the year, people are rushing to diversify their once dollar-only savings. Analysts, however, say the trend is temporary and that the market will likely stabilize once the Iraqi conflict is resolved. "The situation in Iraq is the main factor that affects the dollar/euro rate and the demand for cash currency," said Natalya Orlova, an economist with Alfa Bank. "The longer we see uncertainty over Iraq, the weaker the dollar and the higher demand for the euros," she said. In total, imports of euros by Russian banks doubled to a record 751 million in January, while average Russians bought seven times more of the currency than they sold, the Central Bank said. Bankers now say that demand for dollars has practically dried up, as everyone is selling: Banks imported a total of just $944 million in January, compared to $2.5 billion in December. "Demand for cash euros has been growing by 20 percent to 30 percent a month," said Kirill Grishanov, head of the currency and money market department of Raiffeisenbank Moscow. "It's a good time for Russians to buy euros now, as the currency has proved to be a good means of savings." "If this trend continues, Russia might become an exporter of cash dollars for the second time in the last decade," said Vasily Zablodsky, deputy head of the investment department at MDM Bank, one of the largest importers of cash currency in the market. Zablodsky said the last time Russia was a net exporter of dollars was after the terrorist attacks in America in September 2001. Zablodsky said that once the Iraqi crisis is resolved he expected the dollar to regain parity with the euro. "In the end, we will have two major world currencies and a more equal risk distribution between them," he said. Although some companies such as car dealerships and tourist agencies have started marking their prices in euros, experts doubt that the European currency's importance to the Russian economy as a whole will match the dollar's any time soon. "It is premature to speak about a 'de-dollarization' of the economy because the corporate sector still prefers to use dollars," Orlova said. </BLOCKQUOTE> </HTML>