The Hindu

Thursday, Apr 17, 2003

Now a battle to win over the Iraqi Shias

By Atul Aneja


MANAMA April 16. After unseating the regime of the Iraqi President, Saddam
Hussein, the U.S. is engaged in a fierce contest with France and Iran for
influencing the majority Shia population of Iraq. The U.S. clearly realises
that after winning the war, it could lose the peace if the Shia population
was not on its side.

The U.S. drive for influencing the Shias has acquired fresh urgency after
this community boycotted the first U.S. sponsored post-war meeting on
Tuesday in the southern Iraqi town of Ur. Mohammad Baqr al- Hakim, leader of
the Iraqi Shia grouping, Supreme Assembly for Islamic Revolution in Iraq
(SAIRI), failed to show up at this meeting, much to Washington's alarm. Not
surprisingly, key international players are falling over each other to
influence Mr. Hakim.

The French appeared to be first off the block as there are reports that
French teams have been speaking to Mr. Hakim in the last few days. The
French connection with the Shias is old. For instance, the leader of the
Iranian revolution, the late Ayatollah Khomeini after exiting Iran went
first to Najaf and then into exile near Paris, to engineer the fall of the
pro-U.S. Shah of Iran. In other words, not only have the French been
cohabiting with the Shias for long, they have also shown an inclination to
ally with Shia leaders in order to undermine U.S. interests in the resource
rich Persian Gulf countries.

Despite the effort, it is not clear whether the French initiative to woo Mr.
Hakim has worked. It appears that getting wind of the French operation, the
U.S. played the Shia card of its own. The pro-U.S. Kurdish leader and a
close friend of Mr. Hakim, Jalal Talabani has also reportedly landed up in
Teheran. He is understood to be still engrossed in a dialogue with the Shia
leader.

While major international players seek to influence Mr. Hakim, they may be
unable to do so, unless they factor in Iran's preferences in Iraq. This is
because Iran's clout over Mr. Hakim and his group . Mr. Hakim is also
personally beholden to Iran, which has been sheltering him and his group on
its territory for over a decade. Meanwhile, Syria's interests among Iraqi
Shias are also tied with Iran. Syria apprehends that the emergence of a
hostile leadership in Najaf is likely to undermine its influence among
Shias. In the battle for influence over Shia hearts and minds, the
Anglo-American
alliance appears to have lost the first round. The pro-British Shia cleric,
Abdulmajid al-Khoei, who was reportedly smuggled into Najaf in a tank has
been assassinated, while the U.S. is discovering that Najaf's Grand
Ayatollah, Ali Sistani has, so far, not shown inclination to play a
politically active role.

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