The Indian Express

Monday , September 22, 2003

Riding the waves

Indian Ocean Region is a mix of oil and terrorism. How do we handle it?

G.Parthasarathy

Just a few days before the recent bomb blasts that shook Mumbai, I was
attending an international conference organised by the Asia-Pacific Centre
for Security Studies in Honolulu, to discuss India's role in the Indian
Ocean. The conference was taking place at a time when the United States
appeared to be stuck in a quagmire in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Suicide
bombings had become a common occurrence across the Indian Ocean Region, from
Baghdad and Riyadh to Mumbai, Bali and Jakarta.

Given the propensity of influential Saudis to fund extremist causes abroad
and of the Pakistanis to provide material support to such causes, terrorist
cells dominated by extremist Islamic groups were earlier a common feature to
India's west. The phenomenon of jihadi terrorism is, however, now taking
roots in India's eastern neighborhood also, in countries like Indonesia,
Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. These terrorist groups have developed
close linkages. They derive their ideological orientation and organisational
structure from the 'International Islamic Front for Jihad against the Jews
and the Crusaders' formed by Osama bin Laden in Taliban-ruled Kandahar in
February 1998. Five Pakistani groups, including the Lashkar-e-Toiba, and the
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, are members of this Front.

It is not terrorism alone that makes the Indian Ocean Region combustible.
The Persian Gulf holds the key to global economic stability, with over
two-thirds of the world's reserves of oil and one-third of its gas reserves.

The Asia-Pacific region in our neighborhood is becoming a major consumer of
the world's oil resources, with China having become a growing importer of
oil and natural gas. By 2020, the oil consumption of this region will reach
38 million barrels per day, with 80 per cent of the oil coming from the
Persian Gulf through the Indian Ocean. While India now imports around 80
million tones of oil annually, the annual demand for imported oil will grow
to an estimated 150 million tones in 2020. Around 50 oil tankers traverse
across our shores daily. By 2020, the number of tankers traversing this path
daily will be between 150 and 200. India sits astride two "choke points" for
global oil supplies - the Straits of Hormuz on its West and the Straits of
Malacca to its east. In geopolitical terms, we are located at the crossroads
of the flow of global oil supplies and the movement of jihadi terrorism from
Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Asia-Pacific region.

India has no history of foreign conquest or territorial expansionism.
Therefore, with the exception of Pakistan and China, many countries - view
India as a partner for economic progress and regional security. They welcome
an economically resurgent India playing a cooperative role in promoting
bilateral and regional economic integration and meeting the challenges posed
to security and stability across the Indian Ocean Region.

Given the crucial importance of oil supplies for global prosperity and the
volatility of the politics of the Indian Ocean Region, it is inevitable that
extra-regional powers will enhance their military presence near our shores.
Shortly after China became a net importer of oil in 1993, Zhao Nanqi, the
director of the general staff logistics department in the Chinese navy,
proclaimed: "We can no longer accept the Indian Ocean as an ocean only of
the Indians." Japan has also recently shown an inclination to raise its
military profile in the region. General Musharraf stated in May 2001 that
Pakistan would make the Gwadar port, presently being built with Chinese
assistance, available to vessels of the Chinese navy whenever he felt
threatened. This Sino-Pakistan nexus extends to nuclear and missile
proliferation, in partnership with the Pyongyang regime. Chinese interest in
naval facilities in Myanmar is widely acknowledged. Further, as Israel feels
increasingly insecure in the face of Pakistani-led nuclear proliferation
into its neighborhood, it is only a question of time before it would deploy
nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean. Regional powers like Pakistan, the
Arab Gulf States and Singapore welcome extra-regional naval presences from
the US and others like France, primarily because of their own regional
security concerns. We have welcomed Russian interest in projecting its naval
power in the Indian Ocean and held naval exercises with the Russians near
our shores recently.

In these circumstances, it was heartening that the issue of NATO involvement
in the 5537-strong International Stabilization Force Afghanistan (ISAF) in
Afghanistan was raised in our Parliament. NATO has announced that it will
work within the UN mandate from August 11, 2003, and stated that its
presence in Afghanistan is a "lasting commitment". Russia has agreed to
cooperate with, but not participate in, ISAF. More interesting is the
Chinese reaction to NATO's role. On November 23, 2002, Chinese Foreign
Minister Tan Jiaxuan proclaimed: "Our contacts with NATO have become more
businesslike and are improving our relations. China has sought a strategic
dialogue with NATO." Thus, while both Russia and China may not have welcomed
the NATO presence on their strategic frontiers, they are seeking to engage
with it, rather than confront or criticise it. It is only in India that some
of our politicians appear to believe that the Cold War is not over and don't
bother to understand the realities of the contemporary world.

Terrorism, missile and nuclear proliferation and energy security are going
to be the issues that dominate the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean Region in
the coming years. India is located on the sea-lanes of energy flows from the
Persian Gulf and faces the challenges of terrorism flowing from its western
to its eastern shores. We cannot face these challenges by resorting to old
cliches like "Nonaligned unity". Is it not time for us to at least have a
comprehensive doctrine for promoting, peace, security and cooperation in our
Indian Ocean neighborhood? We will find ourselves excluded, or marginalised,
in this vital and volatile neighborhood, if we lack a clear strategic vision
to deal with the challenges ahead.

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