--------------------------------------------------- Bush holds lead over Kerry in latest Florida poll Associated Press
ORLANDO, Fla. - President Bush holds a slight lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in Florida, according to a new statewide poll.
A Mason-Dixon poll released Monday shows Bush at 51 percent and Kerry at 43 percent in the state whose recount decided the 2000 election and is expected to be one of the 2004 campaign's top battlegrounds. Six percent were undecided.
Bush held a double-digit lead over all of his Democratic rivals in a Mason-Dixon survey conducted in November, but a similar poll conducted in early March by The Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times showed Kerry with a slight advantage.
Analysts said the latest survey reflects a month of television advertising by Bush that has accused Kerry of threatening higher taxes. Kerry has said he would repeal only the tax cuts Bush gave people earning more than $200,000 a year, and to cut corporate income taxes.
"You can look at this and say it's tightened up and Bush's armor has a few nicks in it, but Kerry is not the golden boy either," said pollster Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.
Coker said Bush's solid base among Republicans and an edge among key independent voters in Florida bodes well for his chances. Kerry's hopes could hinge on the war on terrorism or a downturn in the economy.
"Those are the kinds of things I think will have to happen for Florida voters to change presidents now," Coker said.
Kerry's favorable name recognition increased from 23 percent to 32 percent since the last Mason-Dixon Florida Poll in November - but his unfavorable rating grew from 21 to 42 percent. The poll found Bush's favorable name recognition was 49 percent and his unfavorable rating was 39 percent.
Bush's job performance rating has held steady since the survey last fall: 56 percent say Bush has done an excellent or good job. But the poll shows those rating Bush's performance poorly at 26 percent compared to 22 percent last November.
Forty-nine percent approved of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq and 43 percent disapproved. On the war against terrorism, Bush had a 63 percent approval rating.
Kerry would benefit slightly by naming either Florida senator as his running mate but it would not put him in the lead in the Sunshine State. Both Sens. Bob Graham and Bill Nelson have been mentioned as potential vice presidential selections.
The poll showed the addition of Graham to the ticket narrowing Bush's lead to 49 percent to 46 percent. A Kerry-Nelson ticket trailed Bush 51 percent to 44 percent.
The poll of 625 likely voters, conducted March 30 through April 1, was conducted for several newspapers and television stations. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.