Michael P. (quoting the WSJ) says 3,000...
Let's return to what Mr. Cole has written about these sorts of numbers --
/quote/
In fact that is the size of his formal militia. Muqtada's movement is like the layers of an onion. You have 10,000 militiamen. But then you have tens of thousands of cadres able to mobilize neighborhoods. Then you have hundreds of thousands of Sadrists, followers of Muqtada and other heirs of Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr. Then you have maybe 5 million Shiite theocrats who sympathize with Muqtada's goals and rhetoric, about a third of the Shiite community. The Sadrists will now try to shift everything so that the 5 million become followers, the hundreds of thousands become cadres, and the tens of thousands become militiamen.
/end quote/
Let's focus on one line in particular for emphasis --
"Muqtada's movement is like the layers of an onion."
So regardless of whether the official number of militiamen (at least according to 'US military sources') is three thousand, six thousand, ten thousand or 15 guys with sticks and very bad tempers the truly important factor here is the much larger force that can be marshalled at nearly a moment's notice. Also, it's almost a sure bet that American efforts to suppress the Sadrists, which will probably kill many non-combatants, will bring even some of the neutral into the fold -- if for no other reason than to achieve vengeance.
Of course, it's important to not overstate al Sadr's influence. But surely, it's as least as important to not dismissively underestimate the significance of his movement by accepting official militia head-counts as the most important part of the story.
DRM