[lbo-talk] NYT: Intelligence officials say support is very broad

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Thu Apr 8 17:53:49 PDT 2004


[Also dig the scary (enlargable) image of the black masked mob at the top. As one of my friends pointed out, behind every one of those masks is a woman at a sewing machine.]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/international/middleeast/08SHIA.html

The New York Times April 8, 2004

Account of Broad Shiite Revolt Contradicts White House Stand

By JAMES RISEN

W ASHINGTON, April 7 United States forces are confronting a

broad-based Shiite uprising that goes well beyond supporters of one

militant Islamic cleric who has been the focus of American

counterinsurgency efforts, United States intelligence officials said

Wednesday.

That assertion contradicts repeated statements by the Bush

administration and American officials in Iraq. On Wednesday, Secretary

of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of

the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that they did not believe the United

States was facing a broad-based Shiite insurgency. Administration

officials have portrayed Moktada al-Sadr, a rebel Shiite cleric who is

wanted by American forces, as the catalyst of the rising violence

within the Shiite community of Iraq.

But intelligence officials now say that there is evidence that the

insurgency goes beyond Mr. Sadr and his militia, and that a much

larger number of Shiites have turned against the American-led

occupation of Iraq, even if they are not all actively aiding the

uprising.

A year ago, many Shiites rejoiced at the American invasion and the

toppling of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni who had brutally repressed the

Shiites for decades. But American intelligence officials now believe

that hatred of the American occupation has spread rapidly among

Shiites, and is now so large that Mr. Sadr and his forces represent

just one element..

Meanwhile, American intelligence has not yet detected signs of

coordination between the Sunni rebellion in Iraq's heartland and the

Shiite insurgency. But United States intelligence says that the Sunni

rebellion also goes far beyond former Baathist government members.

Sunni tribal leaders, particularly in Al Anbar Province, home to

Ramadi, the provincial capital, and Falluja, have turned against the

United States and are helping to lead the Sunni rebellion,

intelligence officials say.

The result is that the United States is facing two broad-based

insurgencies that are now on parallel tracks.

The Bush administration has sought to portray the opposition much more

narrowly. In the Sunni insurgency, the White House and the Pentagon

have focused on the role of the former leaders of the Baath Party and

Saddam Hussein's government, while in the Shiite rebellion they have

focused almost exclusively on the role of Mr. Sadr. Mr. Rumsfeld told

reporters at the Pentagon that the fighting in Iraq was just the work

of "thugs, gangs and terrorists," and not a popular uprising. General

Myers added that "it's not a Shiite uprising. Sadr has a very small

following."

According to some experts on Iraq's Shiites, the uprising has spread

to many Shiites who are not followers of Mr. Sadr. "There is a general

mood of anti-Americanism among the people in the streets," said

Ghassan R. al-Attiyah, executive director of the Iraq Foundation for

Development and Democracy in Baghdad. "They identify with Sadr not

because they believe in him but because they have their own

grievances."

While they share the broader anger in Iraq over the lack of jobs and

security, many Shiites suspect that the handover of sovereignty to

Iraqi politicians from the American occupying powers on June 30 will

bypass their interests, Mr. Attiyah said.

With his offensive, Mr. Sadr has "hijacked the political process," he

said. As a result, more moderate Shiite clerics and politicians risk

going against public opinion if they come out too strongly against the

rebellious young cleric, he said.

Also hard to gauge is the relationship between Grand Ayatollah Ali

al-Sistani and Mr. Sadr. Ayatollah Sistani is an aging cleric

venerated for his teachings, while Mr. Sadr is a youthful

rabble-rouser, with little clerical standing. This week, Ayatollah

Sistani issued a statement supporting Mr. Sadr's decision to act

against the Americans, but emphasizing the need for a peaceful

solution. In this, the older man seemed to be marking out a position

that allowed him to associate with the tide of Shiite popular

feelings, while allowing Mr. Sadr, for whom he is said to harbor a

personal contempt, to risk his militia and his life in a showdown with

the Americans.

While Mr. Sadr's militiamen prepared for battle, all was quiet at the

Kufa headquarters of a rival militia that has helped sustain Mr.

Sadr's political influence the Badr Brigade. Nominally controlled by

another Shiite political organization, the Supreme Council for the

Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the Badr Brigade has generally been seen

as underpinning Ayatollah Sistani's authority.

Although anti-Americanism is hardly universal among Shiites, an

anti-American mood has been building for months. At the Grand Mosque

in Kufa, where Mr. Sadr took refuge as his militiamen were seizing

control of the city on Sunday, this deep vein of anti-Americanism

feeds off every rumor. At night, as they torch gasoline-soaked tires

to light checkpoints guarding the approaches to the mosque, the

militiamen speak of America's planning to uproot Islam in Iraq, to

steal its oil, to deny Shiites a voice in the country's future

governance, even to bring back Saddam Hussein.

In the Shiite-dominated areas of Iraq, some Pentagon officials and

other government officials believe that Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed

Shiite extremist group, is now playing a key role in the Shiite

insurgency. The Islamic Jihad Organization, a terrorist group closely

affiliated with Hezbollah, is also said by some officials to have

established offices in Iraq, and that Iran is behind much of the

violence.

C.I.A. officials disagree, however, and say they have not yet seen

evidence that Hezbollah has joined forces with Iraqi Shiites. Some

intelligence officials believe that the Pentagon has been eager to

link Hezbollah to the violence in Iraq to link the Iranian regime more

closely to anti-American terrorism.

But C.I.A. officials agree that Hezbollah has established a

significant presence in postwar Iraq. The Lebanese-based organization

sent in teams after the war, American intelligence officials believe.

Hezbollah's presence inside Iraq is a source of concern since it is

widely recognized by counterterrorist experts to have some of the most

effective and dangerous terrorist operatives in the world. The United

States has issued a $25 million reward for the capture of Imad

Mugniyah, the longtime chief of foreign terrorist operations who is

believed to have been behind a series of terrorist attacks against

Americans in the 1980's, including the hostage-taking operations in

Lebanon.

More recently, Hezbollah has focused its terrorist activities on

Israel, and, before the war in Iraq, is not believed to have launched

a major terrorist attack against American interests since the bombing

of the Khobar Towers barracks in Saudi Arabia in 1996 killed 19

American military personnel.

There were some clues to an Iranian presence in Kufa this week. Even

as militiamen ferried food and medical supplies into the mosque this

week in preparation for a siege, among the pilgrims to the sanctuary

were Iranian men.

Militiamen at the mosque said that at least some of the funds needed

for extensive reconstruction work currently under way inside the

sanctuary have come from Iran. There are close ties between the Shiite

clerical establishments in the two countries. But whether the Iranian

role extends beyond finance is hard to know. Some foreign Islamic

fighters have been playing a role in Iraq, particularly in the Sunni

rebellion, intelligence officials say. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a

Jordanian affiliated with the Ansar al-slam terrorist group, is

conducting terrorist operations in conjunction with the Sunni

rebellion, intelligence officials believe. Mr. Zarqawi may have been

behind some recent car bombings in Iraq, although American

intelligence officials do not believe he is commanding any of the

Sunni militia forces facing the United States military.

The Sunni forces appear instead to be led by former Iraqi government

members and local tribal leaders in Falluja and other cities in the

Sunni heartland, intelligence officials said.

Robert Baer, a former C.I.A. official who worked covertly in Iraq in

the mid-1990's, said that some of those Sunni tribal leaders were once

opposed to Saddam Hussein, and years ago approached the C.I.A. about

working with it against Hussein. But now, many of those same tribal

leaders have turned against the occupation, current and former

intelligence officials say.

John F. Burns contributed reporting from Baghdad and Kufa, Iraq, for

this article, and Neela Banerjee from New York.

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company



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