[Also dig the scary (enlargable) image of the black masked mob at the top. As one of my friends pointed out, behind every one of those masks is a woman at a sewing machine.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/international/middleeast/08SHIA.html
The New York Times April 8, 2004
Account of Broad Shiite Revolt Contradicts White House Stand
By JAMES RISEN
W ASHINGTON, April 7 United States forces are confronting a
broad-based Shiite uprising that goes well beyond supporters of one
militant Islamic cleric who has been the focus of American
counterinsurgency efforts, United States intelligence officials said
Wednesday.
That assertion contradicts repeated statements by the Bush
administration and American officials in Iraq. On Wednesday, Secretary
of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that they did not believe the United
States was facing a broad-based Shiite insurgency. Administration
officials have portrayed Moktada al-Sadr, a rebel Shiite cleric who is
wanted by American forces, as the catalyst of the rising violence
within the Shiite community of Iraq.
But intelligence officials now say that there is evidence that the
insurgency goes beyond Mr. Sadr and his militia, and that a much
larger number of Shiites have turned against the American-led
occupation of Iraq, even if they are not all actively aiding the
uprising.
A year ago, many Shiites rejoiced at the American invasion and the
toppling of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni who had brutally repressed the
Shiites for decades. But American intelligence officials now believe
that hatred of the American occupation has spread rapidly among
Shiites, and is now so large that Mr. Sadr and his forces represent
just one element..
Meanwhile, American intelligence has not yet detected signs of
coordination between the Sunni rebellion in Iraq's heartland and the
Shiite insurgency. But United States intelligence says that the Sunni
rebellion also goes far beyond former Baathist government members.
Sunni tribal leaders, particularly in Al Anbar Province, home to
Ramadi, the provincial capital, and Falluja, have turned against the
United States and are helping to lead the Sunni rebellion,
intelligence officials say.
The result is that the United States is facing two broad-based
insurgencies that are now on parallel tracks.
The Bush administration has sought to portray the opposition much more
narrowly. In the Sunni insurgency, the White House and the Pentagon
have focused on the role of the former leaders of the Baath Party and
Saddam Hussein's government, while in the Shiite rebellion they have
focused almost exclusively on the role of Mr. Sadr. Mr. Rumsfeld told
reporters at the Pentagon that the fighting in Iraq was just the work
of "thugs, gangs and terrorists," and not a popular uprising. General
Myers added that "it's not a Shiite uprising. Sadr has a very small
following."
According to some experts on Iraq's Shiites, the uprising has spread
to many Shiites who are not followers of Mr. Sadr. "There is a general
mood of anti-Americanism among the people in the streets," said
Ghassan R. al-Attiyah, executive director of the Iraq Foundation for
Development and Democracy in Baghdad. "They identify with Sadr not
because they believe in him but because they have their own
grievances."
While they share the broader anger in Iraq over the lack of jobs and
security, many Shiites suspect that the handover of sovereignty to
Iraqi politicians from the American occupying powers on June 30 will
bypass their interests, Mr. Attiyah said.
With his offensive, Mr. Sadr has "hijacked the political process," he
said. As a result, more moderate Shiite clerics and politicians risk
going against public opinion if they come out too strongly against the
rebellious young cleric, he said.
Also hard to gauge is the relationship between Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani and Mr. Sadr. Ayatollah Sistani is an aging cleric
venerated for his teachings, while Mr. Sadr is a youthful
rabble-rouser, with little clerical standing. This week, Ayatollah
Sistani issued a statement supporting Mr. Sadr's decision to act
against the Americans, but emphasizing the need for a peaceful
solution. In this, the older man seemed to be marking out a position
that allowed him to associate with the tide of Shiite popular
feelings, while allowing Mr. Sadr, for whom he is said to harbor a
personal contempt, to risk his militia and his life in a showdown with
the Americans.
While Mr. Sadr's militiamen prepared for battle, all was quiet at the
Kufa headquarters of a rival militia that has helped sustain Mr.
Sadr's political influence the Badr Brigade. Nominally controlled by
another Shiite political organization, the Supreme Council for the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the Badr Brigade has generally been seen
as underpinning Ayatollah Sistani's authority.
Although anti-Americanism is hardly universal among Shiites, an
anti-American mood has been building for months. At the Grand Mosque
in Kufa, where Mr. Sadr took refuge as his militiamen were seizing
control of the city on Sunday, this deep vein of anti-Americanism
feeds off every rumor. At night, as they torch gasoline-soaked tires
to light checkpoints guarding the approaches to the mosque, the
militiamen speak of America's planning to uproot Islam in Iraq, to
steal its oil, to deny Shiites a voice in the country's future
governance, even to bring back Saddam Hussein.
In the Shiite-dominated areas of Iraq, some Pentagon officials and
other government officials believe that Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed
Shiite extremist group, is now playing a key role in the Shiite
insurgency. The Islamic Jihad Organization, a terrorist group closely
affiliated with Hezbollah, is also said by some officials to have
established offices in Iraq, and that Iran is behind much of the
violence.
C.I.A. officials disagree, however, and say they have not yet seen
evidence that Hezbollah has joined forces with Iraqi Shiites. Some
intelligence officials believe that the Pentagon has been eager to
link Hezbollah to the violence in Iraq to link the Iranian regime more
closely to anti-American terrorism.
But C.I.A. officials agree that Hezbollah has established a
significant presence in postwar Iraq. The Lebanese-based organization
sent in teams after the war, American intelligence officials believe.
Hezbollah's presence inside Iraq is a source of concern since it is
widely recognized by counterterrorist experts to have some of the most
effective and dangerous terrorist operatives in the world. The United
States has issued a $25 million reward for the capture of Imad
Mugniyah, the longtime chief of foreign terrorist operations who is
believed to have been behind a series of terrorist attacks against
Americans in the 1980's, including the hostage-taking operations in
Lebanon.
More recently, Hezbollah has focused its terrorist activities on
Israel, and, before the war in Iraq, is not believed to have launched
a major terrorist attack against American interests since the bombing
of the Khobar Towers barracks in Saudi Arabia in 1996 killed 19
American military personnel.
There were some clues to an Iranian presence in Kufa this week. Even
as militiamen ferried food and medical supplies into the mosque this
week in preparation for a siege, among the pilgrims to the sanctuary
were Iranian men.
Militiamen at the mosque said that at least some of the funds needed
for extensive reconstruction work currently under way inside the
sanctuary have come from Iran. There are close ties between the Shiite
clerical establishments in the two countries. But whether the Iranian
role extends beyond finance is hard to know. Some foreign Islamic
fighters have been playing a role in Iraq, particularly in the Sunni
rebellion, intelligence officials say. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a
Jordanian affiliated with the Ansar al-slam terrorist group, is
conducting terrorist operations in conjunction with the Sunni
rebellion, intelligence officials believe. Mr. Zarqawi may have been
behind some recent car bombings in Iraq, although American
intelligence officials do not believe he is commanding any of the
Sunni militia forces facing the United States military.
The Sunni forces appear instead to be led by former Iraqi government
members and local tribal leaders in Falluja and other cities in the
Sunni heartland, intelligence officials said.
Robert Baer, a former C.I.A. official who worked covertly in Iraq in
the mid-1990's, said that some of those Sunni tribal leaders were once
opposed to Saddam Hussein, and years ago approached the C.I.A. about
working with it against Hussein. But now, many of those same tribal
leaders have turned against the occupation, current and former
intelligence officials say.
John F. Burns contributed reporting from Baghdad and Kufa, Iraq, for
this article, and Neela Banerjee from New York.
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company