Greens set to get into the Senate driving seat
Sydney Morning Herald April 14 2004
Voters are tired of keeping the bastards honest and are now inclined to throw them out, writes Antony Green.
Stories predicting the end of two-party politics in Australia come around before every election, almost as often as stories about the imminent demise of the National Party. However, this week's news on Labor-Liberal deals to prevent Green mayors being elected in several Sydney councils indicates that traditional party politics is changing.
There is no doubt that in the past decade Australia's two-party system has frayed at the edges. At the last two federal elections one in five House of Representatives votes and one in four Senate votes have been for non-major party candidates.
Yet the policy debate has still been dominated by the major parties, even when forced to deal with MPs who hold the balance of power. When placed in this position, Australian Democrat and independent MPs have usually been more concerned with the process by which a policy is reached rather than the ideology of the policy itself.
The Democrat vote has always been higher in the Senate, indicating voters were inclined to deliver ambiguous mandates. Democrat voters did not necessarily know or support the party's policy and were often simply having a bet each way, delivering a mandate for issues to be further debated in the Senate. Keep the bastards honest, but basically still trust the politicians to work out what was best.
Politics now seems to have moved on from the reasonableness of the Democrats. Rather than keeping them honest, many voters now want to throw the bastards out. The result has been the rise of One Nation and the Greens, and the eclipse of the Democrats.
Obviously, the visceral vision of One Nation is very different from the Greens' more ideologically consistent positions. But both can be seen as objecting to the political and economic "system". Real change, not creeping incrementalism, has been the objective.
While the Democrats straddled the middle ground between Labor and the Coalition, One Nation and the Greens have risen on the flanks of the main parties. Both have challenged the main parties in their traditional heartlands: One Nation in the country and the Greens in Labor's inner-city bailiwicks.
One Nation and the Democrats now look to be in permanent decline, perhaps victims of their lack of ideology. As a result, in the next federal election the Greens will win all Senate positions not won by the big parties. If Labor forms government, the Greens and the four Democrats not facing election will hold the Senate's balance of power.
A Senate with committed Greens jockeying for room in the driver's seat will be very different from one with cuddly Democrats tapping on the reins. Barring agreement between the big parties, the Greens may force Labor into more fundamentalist positions on selected issues, as the DLP did to Coalition governments in the 1960s.
Which brings us back to the inner-Sydney mayoral votes. The deals being done may be far removed from Canberra, but they reveal how politics changes when more than two committed players are in the field.
In Waverley, where the Liberal vote has increased, Labor and the Greens have seen common purpose in an administrative alliance. In Leichhardt and Marrickville, where the Liberals are insignificant and Labor views the Greens as the enemy, deals are being done across the traditional divide to deny the Greens mayoral office. This is not a new tactic. In 1984 a similar preference deal denied Peter Garrett election to the Senate representing the Nuclear Disarmament Party.
Whatever happens, Green preferences will still flow strongly to Labor, and inner-city seats will not be where the federal election is decided.
However, in these seats the Liberal Party will have to make important decisions. Should it direct preferences to the Greens on the tactical basis that it denies Labor a seat? Or should it deny the Greens preferences and attempt to paint Labor as captive to extremists?
There is no doubt the Greens will be around for a long time. All opinion polls show their support is strongest among younger voters, while One Nation and Coalition support has been strongest among older voters.
Yet Australian elections have traditionally been decided by the battle for the middle ground far removed from inner-city politics. If Labor can work with the Greens without frightening the political middle, the Coalition faces tough contests at elections. But if the Coalition can paint Labor as in bed with the extremist Greens, Labor will be disadvantaged. The federal election may well set the ground rules for the coming decade of politics.
Antony Green is an election analyst with the ABC.