TV PROGRAM TRANSCRIPT
LOCATION: http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2004/s1087439.htm
Broadcast: 14/04/2004 Bush vows to change the world
MAXINE McKEW: Despite the confident "stay the course tone" of today's press conference, in reality President Bush is facing declining polls, a more robust Democratic opposition, and allies who are increasingly worried about aggressive US military tactics in Iraq.
Already, Washington is thick with recrimination as critics ask some key questions.
What's the game plan and who is the enemy?
MAXINE McKEW: A former senior Pentagon security analyst, Dr Kurt Campbell, says that the US is on the verge of a major strategic setback in the Middle East.
He warns of a worsening situation inside the country as some of Iraq's traditional enemies seek common cause against coalition troops.
Dr Campbell holds the Henry Kissinger Chair in National Security at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
He's also a key player in the Australian-American Leadership Dialogue which meets again in June.
I spoke with Kurt Campbell earlier today from Washington.
MAXINE McKEW: Kurt Campbell, are the American-led coalition forces now at the point in Iraq where they're facing serious trouble?
KURT CAMPBELL, CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: As you know, there are, besides the United States, about 33 countries that are in the coalition and I would say that the vast majority of them are asking the question, "what in God's name are we doing in Iraq?"
Although many of them are putting on a good face and are planning to stay the course, privately, all are worried about what are both the political consequences of increasing problems in Iraq, and secondly, what are the larger consequences for the prospects of something that we really don't talk about very much, overall failure in Iraq down the line.
MAXINE McKEW: And do you think that's a real prospect at this stage?
KURT CAMPBELL: I think, privately, almost everyone in Washington and elsewhere is starting to think a little bit about a situation in Iraq developing in which there are, shall we say, sub-optimal outcomes, in which there is more and sustained violence, in which it's difficult to hand off political power, in which the United States withdraws under less than ideal circumstances?
You know, there was a situation over the weekend where Ambassador Bremer was asked quite directly by a very distinguished American television commentator, "who are we handing off power to on June 30?"
There was a momentary silence and then Ambassador Bremer said, "Well, you know, that's a very good question."
It's absolutely chilling, chilling stuff given that we really don't know what lies ahead.
Now, the [Bush] Administration is extraordinarily good at painting a picture of confidence, of resolve, but I think even behind the scenes they too are starting to get very worried about both the political consequences inside the United States. It's no secret we're coming up on an election but also about what it will mean for the United States in the larger Middle East and even among our allies.
MAXINE McKEW: What then is the price of failure and I note that the Bush Administration won't even contemplate this because it's still talking about the possibility of a great, historic opportunity to change the world?
KURT CAMPBELL: Maxine, there was this idea of sort of a reverse domino effect, that success in Iraq, a quick transition, would lead to the further spread of democracy in the Middle East.
In fact, it's really been the reverse.
It has probably undermined our supporters in the Middle East.
There is increasing anxiety about the fact that Iraq is attracting Islamic fundamentalists.
There are lots of signs of people coming to Iraq with very bad intentions for coalition forces and for the United States.
This is altogether worrisome and I think the real problem is that I think the situation is probably going to get worse before it gets better inside Iraq.
MAXINE McKEW: I'd like you to comment on the immediate situation in Iraq.
As you know, the analogy has been made with Vietnam by quite a few people.
Is it correct, in this sense, that there's no doubt that America can bring enormous military might to quell any opposition, that when it does so, as we saw in Fallujah last week, it risks, of course, radicalising the very people that it wants to help?
KURT CAMPBELL: I would question the initial assumption, Maxine, the idea that it could quell any resistance.
Our entire game plan in Iraq is based on the belief that we will be facing opposition in a very narrow area.
One of the things that we've seen over the last several weeks that's most troubling is that the area of combat operations, of insurgency, is spreading throughout the country.
In fact, nowhere is safe.
What we're seeing is that many of our allies who are stationed in what we thought were peaceful parts of the country are calling for American and other allied support operations to back them up.
But secondly, much more worrying to me, Maxine, is the fact that traditional enemies who have worked very poorly with each other in the past are making common cause against a larger enemy, at least from their perspective, ie, the United States.
MAXINE McKEW: When you talk about enemies making common cause, are you referring there to the possibility of a growing coalition of Sunnis working with Shiites and being supported, in turn, by Iran?
KURT CAMPBELL: Well, you know, it would be bad enough if it were just those groups, Maxine, but the reality is that there are other groups as well.
There are former supporters of Saddam Hussein, former military people who were perhaps not completely supportive of Saddam Hussein, but are unhappy about their current lot in life.
There are those that are more directly associated with Iran, others that have allegiances more inside Iraqi organisations.
All of these groups appear on some level to find a common distaste with the United States.
The biggest worry that we face is that the United States has never been in conflict this long, where we at a fundamental level do not know who the enemy is.
You cannot get anyone to sit down and say, "I'll tell you exactly who we're facing."
So, in this respect, everyone says, "Oh, be careful, don't use the Vietnam analogy."
The reality is that there are elements of this comparison that it might be worse in this case than it was in Vietnam.
MAXINE McKEW: So you see the US suffering a strategic setback at precisely the time when it needs the international community to help in Iraq?
KURT CAMPBELL: I find it very difficult to imagine any other country stepping up to the plate now, both because they're worried about the consequences and, second, many countries have just had it with the United States right now.
So, unfortunately, that burden, I think, is going to fall largely on us.
It will be difficult for the United States to recover from the Middle East if, in fact, we do not prevail on some level inside Iraq.
MAXINE McKEW: You say there that some countries have had it with the United States.
Does that mean then you have some sympathy with what Labor Leader Mark Latham has been saying in Australia, that he wants the small Australian contingent, still in Iraq, he wants them home by Christmas?
KURT CAMPBELL: I don't want to get into the domestic politics of a close ally and an ally that has been enormously supportive to the United States through thick and thin - Timor, Tikrit, in Afghanistan and now in Iraq.
Couldn't ask more.
Australia's punched above its weight.
The alliance has ascended to a new level, but there are domestic politics at work in all countries.
The level of anxiety in Australia is palpably rising, I think you see it in all your polling.
The problem, I think, is that some of our most supportive countries are not certain that we have a game plan right now.
Frankly, I'm not sure that we do, either.
By the way, I think the way the Prime Minister, John Howard, has handled this deployment, get in early, be very supportive, and perhaps not have as much, you know, vulnerability at this stage, looks very smart in retrospect.
MAXINE McKEW: Kurt Campbell, for that, thank you very much indeed.
KURT CAMPBELL: Thank you, Maxine.