> -I would like to add my few cents to that discussion. I think that, when a
> country
> -has its per capita GDP growing at more than 5%/year, like India and
>China,
India's per capita GDP is not growing at 5% per year. During the 80s, per capita NNP grew by about 3% per annum and in the 90s by 3.5%. With population growing at 2% a year, 5% per capita growth can not be achieved at the current growth rates.
> I have some doubts
> to what extent the current Indian boom is following the first and the
> second
> -pattern.
Indian growth follows the second pattern of uneven and skewed development. e.g. the share of agriculture in India's GDP is about 25%, though 70% of the population depends on agriculture. The growth in agriculture has slowed down considerably in recent years for a variety of reasons. Moreover, there is gross neglect of sectors such as education, health and housing. Growth is also concentrated in South and West and regions around Delhi. So a prolonged slowdown will have serious consequences, though it is hard to imagine what would cause such a slowdown.
>However, it´s clear to me that China has this unequal development
> -and I wonder what will happen in the Chinese society in the event of
> prolonged
> -slowdown.
I don't see how you can govern a developed nation of 1.25-1.50 bn people as one party dictatorship in the long term. How China is going to manage that transition to forms of political institutions appropriate to 21 century is hard to imagine.
Ulhas