[lbo-talk] Kerry Heckled for Opposing Withdrawal of US Troops

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

> My own sense is that the threat of civil war is overblown, and has
been used
> to justify the occupation. There seems to be more evidence, including
from
> the recent uprising, that the different religious and ethnic factions
accept
> the idea of a federated Iraq, and that the demands of the world
economy and
> of regional powers like Turkey and Iran will act as further
constraints
> against fissiparous tendencies. Differences that have emerged over
religious
> influence in public life or that will emerge over the division of
resource
> revenues are normal and containable within parliamentary regimes. All
this
> is quite apart from the fact that the international community, even if
it
> wanted to, can't really regulate historical development, which is by
nature
> a messy process, and that when interventions have been undertaken,
they have
> been directed at the protection of US and broader Western interests,
and
> have not addressed the broader "humanitarian" and democratic goals of
> wishful liberals. In the case of Iraq, the US-led invasion and
occupation
> has, in fact, been enormously destabilizing. In light of the above,
what
> "consequences" of an American withdrawal are you particularly
concerned
> about?
> 
> Marv Gandall

Perhaps you are right - but I do not know the situation well enough to
counter or support your statement.  The reason I opposed the idea of
immediate withdrawal is that the US intervention created a power vacuum
in Iraq, and since power abhors vacuum, this is likely to lead to a very
violent, possible even genocidal power struggle.  Examples may include
Afghanistan, Ethiopia, perhaps Sudan and Haiti.  

I think there is plenty room between indefinite occupation as bunker
head hardliners want, and immediate pullout as pie-in-the-sky peaceniks
suggest.  An orderly transfer of power to a legitimate Iraqi authority
(rather than a US puppet), perhaps under the auspices of an
international body (UN? Arab League?) would be a preferred option in my
book.

Wojtek