[lbo-talk] Pew study of poll accuracy

Jon Johanning jjohanning at igc.org
Tue Apr 20 15:49:45 PDT 2004


On Tuesday, April 20, 2004, at 04:49 PM, Doug Henwood wrote:


> Isn't that depressing? It does help explain why Bush's approval
> ratings aren't slipping. I guess O'Reilly was speaking for many when
> he called for a "final solution" to be administered in Fallujah.

This is basically the same mechanism that is operating in Israel and Palestine -- if your side gets hit badly (your military but even more so your civilians, and there are quite a few U.S. "civilians" -- actually substitute soldiers working for private contractors -- getting killed in Iraq these days), the gut reaction of most people in any country will be to hit back even harder. I don't know why people are so puzzled that Americans are reacting this way -- it's pure human nature.

The science section of the NY Times has an interesting article today <http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/20/health/psychology/ 20ANGE.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1082501278-M4k7ZM/40CIP1SBxPn5D4A> about a psychological study which shows that when people are angry they tend to activate stereotypes of the other -- people outside their group. The authors of the study conjecture that this is because people feel safer by identifying with others in their group in a situation in which they expect immediate bad things to happen. On the other hand, people who are feeling sad rather than angry, because the problems they are dealing with are longer-term, tend to be more thoughtful about finding the reasons why things are not going well.

As for war policies, I think that people have this gut "get those bastards in the out-group" reaction as long as they assume that the leaders running the policies are competent and know what they are doing, but if they decide that that assumption is wrong, they can quickly change their minds about supporting the leaders. I think there is a lot of confusion in the public at this point; people can't make up their minds whether Bush is a strong competent leader or pushing the Iraq situation into a quagmire. Probably the way the majority of people make up their minds on this point will decide the election.

Jon Johanning // jjohanning at igc.org __________________________________ Belinda: Ay, but you know we must return good for evil. Lady Brute: That may be a mistake in the translation.

-- Sir John Vanbrugh: The Provok’d Wife (1697), I.i.



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