by David W. Moore, Senior Gallup Poll Editor
Two recent polls have attempted to measure the public's willingness to send more troops to Iraq. An April 15-18 ABC News/Washington Post poll asked whether Americans would support increasing the number of U.S. military forces in Iraq. A majority, 54%, said they would, while 44% said they would not.
Would you support or oppose increasing the number of U.S. military forces in Iraq?
No
Support Oppose opinion ABC News/Washington Post 54% 44 2
By contrast, an April 16-18 CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey asked a four-part question: Whether the United States should send more troops to Iraq, keep the number of troops at the current level, withdraw some troops, or withdraw all troops. Using that question, it appears as though only 33% of Americans are willing to increase troops in Iraq, while 62% are not -- including 37% who want to withdraw some or all troops, and 25% who want to keep the same number there.
Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should now do about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq - [ROTATED: the U.S. should send more troops to Iraq, the U.S. should keep the number of troops as it is now, the U.S. should withdraw some troops from Iraq, (or) the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq]?
keep withdraw withdraw no
Send more as it is some all opinion CNN/USA Today/Gallup 33% 25 16 21 5
So, which is it? Do Americans support an increase in troops, or not? And how can two quite reputable polls come up with such contradictory pictures of public opinion?
Oddly, the two sets of results do not really contradict each other, but rather measure different shades of opinion. The Gallup question doesn't ask people if they would be willing to support an increase in troops (implicitly if the government decided to take that action), but instead asks them for their opinion as to what the United States should do now. Many who do not opt for the increase might nevertheless support sending more troops if the government decided it was best to do so. Or, at the very least, these people might not be upset if the government ordered the increase.
And that is what Gallup found. People who said they wanted U.S. troops either to be withdrawn or kept at the same level were then asked if they would be upset if the Bush administration decided to go ahead and increase troops. Overall, 40% said they would not be upset -- including 68% of those who said keep the troops at the same level, 25% who wanted to withdraw some troops, and 12% who wanted to withdraw all troops.
In general, people who express no opinion on a matter, or who are not upset if the government takes an action contrary to their own views, hold what we at Gallup call a "permissive opinion." It means that while they may not express initial support for a policy, they essentially "permit" the government to adopt the policy by not getting upset.
The poll shows that 29% of Americans hold a permissive opinion with respect to increasing troops -- 23% who did not opt for the increase initially but said they would not be upset if more troops are sent, and another 6% who expressed no opinion one way or the other. When added to the 37% who already supported an increase, the "permissive consensus" for increasing troops to Iraq is 66%.
Despite the different questions, the ABC News/Washington Post poll also found what might also be called a permissive consensus of about two-thirds of Americans. After asking the people if they favored or opposed an increase, ABC informed the respondents who were opposed that the U.S. military commander in Iraq said he needed more troops. Given that information, would they support an increase?
Would you support or oppose increasing the number of U.S. military forces in Iraq? (If opposed: The U.S. Military Commander in Iraq says he needs more forces to deal with the current unrest there. Given that, do support or oppose increasing the number of U.S. military forces in Iraq?
Net Support
if
commander
needs no
support increase opinion oppose ABC News/Washington Post 54% 10 1 35
Overall, 10% of Americans changed their minds -- from initial opposition to support, once they were told of the military commander's need. Added to the 54% who already supported more troops, that meant 64% of Americans would support sending additional troops to Iraq. Another 1% had no opinion, which would bring the "permissive consensus" to 65% -- about the same percentage that Gallup found using a different approach to the issue.
In the end, despite the initial divergence in results, the two polls provide a similar picture of public opinion on this issue. While people may initially express a different view from that of their political leaders about what the government should do in Iraq, many are willing to follow their leaders once the leaders make their preferences known.