"All the polls share a common bias strong enough to make their numbers meaningless: the demand for their product depends on the perception of a "horse race." They can therefore be counted on to adjust their (unpublished) raw numbers by such fudge factors as "demographics" and "voting likelihood" to make their published percentages as close as possible.
An accurate poll would seek to determine the swing from the 2000 election, narrowly won by Gore. It would have a sufficiently large sample (roughly the number of people polled each week by all the polls taken together) and would ask these questions:
1) In 2000 did you --Vote for the candidate of the Republican Party? (Bush) --Vote for the candidate of the Democratic Party? (Gore) --Vote for the candidate of the Green Party (Nader) --Vote for some other candidate? --Not vote in the presidential election?
2) In 2004 do you expect to --Vote for the candidate of the Republican Party? (Bush) --Vote for the candidate of the Democratic Party? (Kerry) --Vote for the candidate of the Green Party? (Cobb) --Vote for the independent candidate? (Nader) --Vote for some other candidate? --Not vote in the presidential election? --Vote for some candidate about whom you have yet to make up your
mind, if you vote at all?
The answers to these questions would give a meaningful and very accurate picture of the actual voting intentions of the electorate. I would be very, very surprised were such a poll to be conducted and published by anyone. Until that unlikely event, all the horse-race polls should be written off as so many tout sheets.
Shane Mage
Shane Mage
"When we read on a printed page the doctrine of Pythagoras that all things are made of numbers, it seems mystical, mystifying, even downright silly.
When we read on a computer screen the doctrine of Pythagoras that all things are made of numbers, it seems self-evidently true." (N. Weiner)
>ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: POST-CONVENTION - 8/1/04
>
>After his Convention,
>a Tepid Bump for Kerry
>
>John Kerry took a tepid bump in support out of his nominating
>convention, gaining an advantage over George W. Bush among
>registered voters - but not so among those most likely to vote.
>
>Kerry's gain is smaller than usual for a convention bounce,
>testament to the unusually polarized race, with many voters
>committing early to each candidate. Still, it comes at a crucial
>time for Kerry, countering a loss of momentum leading up to his
>convention.
>
>Kerry gained five to eight points among registered voters on issues
>and attributes alike, while Bush lost about as many. And after a
>convention that focused heavily on his military experience in
>Vietnam, Kerry leads Bush as "better qualified to be
>commander-in-chief," by 52-44 percent.
>
>Perhaps most critically, Kerry solidified more of his support. He
>sharply boosted the level of enthusiasm among his supporters; made
>some progress on being more than "not Bush"
>
>(but needs more); and produced a solid increase in his "strong"
>support, up 13 points to 85 percent, now on par with Bush.
>
>While Kerry won some ground on Iraq, his gains occurred
>disproportionately among people who say the economy is the most
>important issue in their vote - making the economy look increasingly
>likely to be the tipping point in this election.
>
>THE RACE - Among registered voters, 50 percent support Kerry in this
>ABC News/Washington Post poll, 44 percent Bush and two percent Ralph
>Nader - a gain of four points for Kerry and a loss of four for Bush
>from the pre-convention ABC/Post poll.
>
>That net shift of eight points is about half the average, 15 points,
>for challengers running against incumbents in elections since 1968
>(ranging from +30 for Bill Clinton in 1992 to -3 for George McGovern
>in 1972). The average bounce for all candidates is 12 points.
>
>Among likely voters, Kerry's six-point edge slips to an
>insignificant two points - 49 percent support for Kerry, 47 percent
>for Bush and two percent for Nader, a net (and at best very slight)
>six-point shift toward Kerry from the pre-convention poll.
>
>Last week's ABC/Post poll did not show a notable difference between
>registered voters and likely voters; it now appears across a range
>of questions (but not, however, the "commander-in-chief" question).
>Likely voters are defined by factors such as intention to vote and
>past voting behavior.
>
>Each campaign can take some bragging rights from these results:
>Kerry, that he moved the ball in his direction in a tight and highly
>polarized contest; Bush, that Kerry's bounce was smaller than usual,
>and that after Kerry held center stage for four days, the race is
>still essentially tied among likely voters.
>
>The changes measured here do not involve the vast bulk of the
>population; most people are firmly set on one of the two candidates.
>It's a small segment - moveable voters - that shifts preferences as
>the campaign progresses, and there are fewer moveables than usual
>this year. (Indeed nearly all the changes in this survey are within
>single digits for each candidate.) The next key question is how well
>Bush bounces out of his own convention late this month.
>
>ISSUES - Kerry, even after his convention, still needs to make his
>views better known. Fifty-three percent of registered voters say
>they have a good idea where he stands on the issues - up a bit
>(seven points) from before the convention, but still far behind Bush.
>
>Kerry leads Bush among registered voters in trust to handle five of
>eight individual issues tested in this poll - health care,
>education, the economy, international relations and (more closely)
>taxes, with the two about even in three others - Iraq,
>counter-intelligence and terrorism. Among likely voters, though,
>Kerry leads in fewer, three of the eight - education, health care
>and international relations.
>
>This is in any case a gain for Kerry from before the convention,
>when he didn't lead among registered voters in any of six issues
>tested. Bush had an advantage on Iraq, terrorism and taxes, and they
>were about tied on the economy, education and health care. On each
>of these, Kerry gained six to eight points in this poll, and Bush
>lost five to eight.
>
>Trust to handle Now Pre-convention Net change
>
>Health care Kerry +19 Kerry +3 Kerry +16
>
>Terrorism Bush +3 Bush +18 Kerry +15
>
>Iraq Kerry +2 Bush +12 Kerry +14
>
>Taxes Kerry +6 Bush +6 Kerry +12
>
>Education Kerry +13 Kerry +1 Kerry +12
>
>Economy Kerry +11 Bush +1 Kerry +12
>
>Int'l relations Kerry +9 NA NA
>
>Intelligence Kerry +5 NA NA
>
>Note, the advantages and "net change" in this table (as in following
>ones) combine the shifts toward Kerry and away from Bush on each
>item. For example, if on one item Kerry gained six points and Bush
>lost six, that would be a net change toward Kerry of 12. As such
>these shifts are moderate ones, representing small albeit
>significant movement.
>
>The top three issues remain the same: The economy, cited by 25
>percent of registered voters as the most important issue in their
>vote; the war in Iraq, cited by 23 percent; and the campaign against
>terrorism, 20 percent. There's a vast difference in vote preferences
>among these groups: Among registered voters, those who say terrorism
>is the top issue favor Bush by 83-15 percent; those who say it's
>Iraq prefer Kerry by 72-26 percent.
>
>ECONOMY - Preferences among "terrorism voters" are little changed
>from before the convention; among "Iraq voters" there's been a bit
>of a shift to Kerry. But it's the economy that looks to be the
>tipping point: Those who say it's the top issue in their vote favor
>Kerry over Bush by 60-33 percent in this poll, compared with an even
>split before the convention. It's the biggest change among any
>single group in this survey.
>
>Now Pre-convention Net change
>
>Economy voters Kerry +27 Kerry +1 Kerry +26
>
>Iraq voters Kerry +46 Kerry +33 Kerry +13
>
>Terrorism voters Bush +68 Bush +62 Bush +6
>
>It's telling, too, that moveable voters are more apt than definite
>ones to pick the economy as the top issue in their vote. Among those
>who say they'll definitely stick with their candidate, 22 percent
>pick the economy as their No. 1 issue; among those who are moveable,
>it's 39 percent. (Moveables, however, also are paying less attention
>to the election. An open question is how many of them actually will
>vote this fall.)
>
>All Definite Moveable
>
>Economy voters 25% 22% 39%
>
>Iraq voters 23 26 14
>
>Terrorism voters 20 21 18
>
>A key variable in the race, then, is the extent to which Kerry can
>persuade voters that Bush has mismanaged the economy - and in this
>poll 47 percent say most people have gotten worse off since he took
>office, which the Democrats were able to nudge up from 41 percent
>last week. Kerry's task is made more difficult by the fact that
>consumer confidence as measured by the ongoing ABC News/Money
>magazine poll turned sharply up earlier this summer, after a
>springtime flop.
>
>TERRORISM - Kerry also looks able to garner some votes on the issue
>of "winning the peace" in Iraq. But he has a far tougher task on
>terrorism - likely to be made no easier by the focus on 9/11 and its
>aftermath at congressional hearings on the 9/11 commission report
>his month, leading up to the Republican convention in New York City.
>
>This survey was conducted Friday through Sunday. Another potential
>concern for the Kerry camp is that their lead was largest in Friday
>interviews, immediately after the convention, and less so in
>Saturday and Sunday interviews.
>
>There's no significant difference in results from Sunday interviews
>compared with those the day before, suggesting the heightened
>terrorism alert had no meaningful impact on the views measured here.
>All the same, it's clear that terrorism is Bush's strongest issue by
>far - the one, above any other, that he wants the election to be
>about. His Rose Garden appearance today announcing action on the
>9/11 report underscores the point.
>
>ATTRIBUTES - Kerry leads Bush among registered voters in five of
>eight personal attributes tested in this poll - a vision for the
>future, empathy, understanding complex issues, and (more narrowly)
>honesty and values. Bush has the advantage in consistency and, more
>narrowly, leadership; the two are about even on who can "keep the
>country safer." Among likely voters, Kerry's lead again slips, to
>two of these: empathy and vision.
>
>This still is better for Kerry than before the convention, when Bush
>led among registered voters in five of six attributes tested.
>
>Personal attributes Now Pre-convention Net change
>
>Leadership Bush +6 Bush +19 Kerry +13
>
>Security Bush +3 Bush +16 Kerry +13
>
>Values Kerry +6 Bush +6 Kerry +12
>
>Honesty Kerry +6 Bush +6 Kerry +12
>
>Consistency Bush +29 Bush +40 Kerry +11
>
>Empathy Kerry +14 Kerry +4 Kerry +10
>
>Vision Kerry +13 NA NA
>
>Complexity Kerry +8 NA NA
>
>OPTIMISM/FAVES- Kerry also managed a shift on the optimism factor:
>The number of registered voters who see him as an optimist gained 10
>points, to 65 percent, while the number who call Bush optimistic
>lost eight, to 64 percent. Bush has criticized Kerry for a dour
>outlook; today, though, the two are evenly rated as optimists - a
>result that holds among likely voters and registered voters alike.
>
>Kerry did not manage much movement in favorability: Fifty-one
>percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him
>overall, about the same as pre-convention (48 percent). Bush's
>favorability rating slipped by seven points, to 47 percent. (John
>Edwards is seen favorably by 49 percent, essentially unchanged;
>Teresa Heinz Kerry by 34 percent, up seven points.)
>
>APPROVAL - Bush's overall job approval rating remains a split
>decision: Among all Americans, 47 percent approve, matching his
>career low, and 49 percent disapprove. The only post-war president
>to win re-election despite less-than-majority approval was Harry
>Truman. On the other hand, none has lost re-election with consumer
>confidence as high as it is now (in data since Eisenhower). One of
>those long-term trends will break this fall.
>
>STRENGTH/ENTHUSIASM - As noted, Kerry's best feat was to rally his
>troops. The number of his supporters who are "strongly" behind him
>has advanced from 66 percent in April to 72 percent before the
>convention and 85 percent now. Bush's strong support has been
>steady, now 86 percent.
>
>Similarly, 56 percent of Kerry's supporters now say they're "very"
>enthusiastic about him, up 15 points from before the convention.
>Bush's support, though, is about as energized - 53 percent "very"
>enthusiastic.
>
>Half of Kerry's supporters now support him more on his own merits,
>rather than mainly because he's not Bush, and that's up from 41
>percent before the convention. But he has more work to do here; much
>more of Bush's support is affirmative in nature - 82 percent.
>
>In an indication of how much ice there is in the river, 83 percent
>of Kerry's supporters, and 79 percent of Bush's, say they will
>"definitely" stick with their guy. By contrast Bush's support was 68
>percent definite, Al Gore's 65 percent, at about this time in 2000.
>
>It's these kind of numbers that make big movement in the election
>difficult. Just 19 percent of registered voters, and 15 percent of
>likely voters, say there's any chance they'll change their mind,
>down from 26 percent in June. And fewer say there's a "good chance"
>they'll reconsider - only seven percent of registered voters.
>
>GROUPS - Among groups, the largest shifts in Kerry's favor occurred
>among economy voters, young adults, Southerners, white Catholics and
>college graduates. Kerry and Bush now run about evenly among white
>Catholics, a key swing voter group. And they're even in this poll in
>the South, customarily a Bush stronghold. Edwards might have moved
>that number; it'll be important to watch whether or not it moves
>back.
>
>PARTY - There was some movement in political party identification in
>this poll: Among registered voters, 39 percent say they're
>Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 26 percent independents (among
>likely voters, who account for 55 percent of adults in this poll,
>it's 40-32-24). That's more Democratic, and less Republican, than
>usual; it was 34-33-29 percent among registered voters in the last
>ABC/Post poll. Moving loyalty, of course, is precisely what
>conventions are all about.
>
>METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by
>telephone July 30-Aug. 1, 2004, among a random national sample of
>1,200 adults, including 940 self-identified registered voters. The
>results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection
>and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
>
>Analysis by Gary Langer.
>
>ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at
>http://abcnews.com/pollvault.html.
>
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