Change of Ukraine's Doctrine Commented; Costs, Benefits for Russia Noted Moscow Moskovskiy Komsomolets in Russian 28 Jul 04 p2
[Article by Gennadiy Petrov: "Nay-TO the Doctrine. Ukraine Has Turned Away From the West for the Sake of Elections" -- taken from HTML version of source provided by ISP]
Russians and Ukrainians are brothers forever. Again.
On the day when Putin and Kuchma met in Yalta, news agencies and Ukrainian television and radio channels suddenly burst with the news that as early as 15 July the Ukrainian president introduced changes in the text of the state military doctrine. In particular, it appears from them that Ukraine no longer "prepares for full membership" in the EU or NATO and does not believe that "intensification of Euro-Atlantic integration" is "a fundamental priority of both domestic and foreign policy."
In an "encore" performance, this news was repeated by Serhiy Tyhypko, the chief of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's election staff, so that no one would have any doubts that Kuchma's successor thinks just as his patron. Ukraine's decision to break up with NATO as such is not unexpected. The attitude of Ukrainian authorities toward the West has been changing in the past several years as the mood of a pregnant woman. The intrigue was whether Putin would support Yanukovych's bid for president in response and, if so, what specific form this support would assume.
This time around, apparently to emphasize that economic issues should be more important than politics in relations between the two countries, the appearance of Putin and Kuchma before journalists was planned at a meeting with representatives of Ukrainian and Russian big business. Kuchma did not say a word about Yanukovych and Ukrainian television channels did not even show a close-up of the "crown prince" (a rare thing recently). Instead, Putin repeated the name of the Ukrainian premier probably six times, announcing at the end of the meeting that rapprochement between Ukraine and Russia is stalled by "our partners abroad" and "their agents in our countries." At these words, Russian businessmen in the audience angrily looked at each other. Putin announced that all the problems mentioned by the businessmen would be resolved by the creation of the single economic area [YeEP]. "We have already approached new, truly cardinal accords," Putin said, looking in the direction of Yanukovych.
At these words, the Russian oligarchs got even more depressed. In fact, it is clear what the Russian president had in mind: abolition of customs restrictions on mutual commodity exports, as a result of which cheap Ukrainian sugar, liquor, and metal will gush into Russia; cancellation of the VAT on Russian energy sources and, consequently, a drop in their price. All this will ensure a favorable attitude toward Yanukovych on the part of Ukrainian regional elites looking to Yushchenko. They will ensure the "administrative resource," higher pensions and allowances -- popular support. Then, Yanukovych may really outdo his rival.
How much will Russia lose as a result of these concessions? By optimistic estimates, $700 million to $1 billion annually. These figures were cited by Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Malenkovych.
"Russia does not have any other option," he told Moskovskiy Komsomolets. "If Yushchenko wins, the YeEP and rapprochement with Russia could be considered dead whatever he might say. If Yanukovych wins, however, the YeEP existence will be merely open to question -- although Ukraine will still start moving toward NATO and Europe later. It is in its interests."
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