--- oudeis <oudeis at gmail.com> linked too:
Among Pandora's nested boxes, the next one to be opened will extend the conflict into Central Asia. Turkey's status as the "sick man of Europe" drew the European powers into World War I, and it is Turkey's present role as the sick man of Central Asia that will draw in the Russians. Last week I predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin would ride to Bush's rescue by introducing Russian forces into Iraq's Sunni triangle. On July 27, the pro-government Russian daily Izvestia editorialized on behalf of such an action:
Washington, to be sure, would like Russian peacekeepers in the Sunni belt in Iraq: they have a great deal of experience operating in such Muslim hot spots as Bosnia and Kosovo ... One should take note that in all these areas, the Russian peacekeepers enjoyed a very good relationship with the locals, without incidents and terrorist acts. Truthfully, the Russian leadership should consider this option quite carefully. Bush thinks he needs Putin to prove his strategy right before the American electorate, but Putin will do so precisely because US strategy in the region is dead wrong. Washington believes that stabilizing Iraq will stabilize the entire region: Moscow knows that the Iraq war already has destabilized the region. In the 21st century version of the Great Game, Russia's winning chess move is to replace Turkey as the dominant power in Central Asia.
--- While it is true that Russia is interested in the Caspian and pan-Turk sentiments, I think this analysis is off. For one thing, Russia is _already_ the main power in Central Asia. For another, the last thing Russia wants is to be seen as a member of the "Crusader Alliance." That would completely alienate the Muslim population (20% of Russia's population). Russia is trying to join the Organization for the Islamic Conference. Russia has managed to avoid turning Chechnya into an anti-Muslim issue for Russia's Muslims, as they do not perceive the fighters in Chechnya as being religious warriors, but as criminals. That would not be the same as in Iraq.
I do not believe Russia wants instability in the Middle East; Tehran and Moscow are close partners and Moscow has warmed up to Riyad in a historically unprecedented way, although Iran and Russia do have differences over partitioning of the Caspian. I believe that Moscow's fear is that Iraq is going to become an Islamist state further acerbating the cituation in Central Asia and the Caucasus, which is why the Kremlin says that it does not want the US to lose in Iraq.
Further, moving troops to Iraq would be opposed to 99% of Russian society.
Finally, Russia's combat-ready troops are all already in Chechnya, Russia has a huge border to patrol, and there is the possibility of conflict between South Ossetia and Georgia.
That is my view. But I've been wrong before.
I think Putin thinks Bush is predictable and, except for the Iraq war, Putin's and Bush's strategies in the "war on terror" have been congruent, especially in Central Asia, and the US has helped Russia a lot with Chechnya. I think Putin would rather deal with the evil he knows than the evil he doesn't (Kerry), hence his statements on terrorist attacks uncovered by Russian intelligence (but who knows -- maybe it was true and not politically timed).
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