Relating to the latest news about the rise in crude oil prices and Doug's latest LBO #108 article "Is Oil Expensive", I thought to send you an excerpt (and link to the whole article in .pdf) of an article by Israeli economists Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler from the June-July 2004 issue of the journal I edit, News from Within (English language journal of the joint Palestinian/Israeli organization, The Alternative Information Center).
Best wishes,
Bryan ------------------------
From the latest News from Within: Vol. XX, No. 4, June-July 2004 * Clash of Civilizations, or Capital Accumulation?*
*By: Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler*
Excerpt from the article: * The Predictions *
Over the past three years, we have published several articles—including in News from Within and M’tsad Sheni—where we made a series of very ‘contrarian’ predictions on the new wars. Specifically, we claimed that:
1. Direct US intervention would conveniently, if not intentionally, fail to ‘stabilize’ the Middle East;
2. The new wars would not make oil plentiful and cheap, but scarce and expensive;
3. The leading oil companies would profit greatly from the new environment of heightened instability and soaring oil prices;
4. Rising oil prices were likely to fuel global stagflation (stagnation together with inflation); and,
5. The shift toward stagflation—should it occur—would not hinder accumulation but boost it, particularly for the largest corporate coalitions.
When these claims were first made, they were greeted with a mixture of indifference and hostility. The conventional ‘postisms’ of ethnicity, race and culture pay little attention to capital accumulation, oil prices or inflation, and none whatsoever to their analysis. After all, argue the ‘postists,’ these are not real processes, but rather ‘narratives’ and ‘discourses,’ and as such there can be little to analyze in them beyond their own ‘text.’
By contrast, analysts of politics and economics deal extensively with such questions—but to them our arguments sounded like conspiratorial nonsense. Indeed, until very recently, the common sentiment was that direct US intervention would stabilize the Middle East. The Americans, it was commonly believed, would quickly topple Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, wrestle the evil OPEC to the ground and bring down the price of oil—all in the interest of securing the ‘new economy’ of neoliberal globalization and inflationless growth. As it turns out, the pundits got it wrong. Contrary to the ‘postist’ view, the new wars, although wrapped in religiousethnic ornaments, indeed seem to be ‘all about oil.’ And yet, contrary to conventional political-economy, the ‘oil connection’ here is very different from what the experts led us to believe. Three years after September 11th, it is pretty clear that:
1. The US plan to conquer Afghanistan and Iraq was bound to destabilize the region for years to come;
2. It was the US attacks on Iraq and Afghanistan—and not the incompetence of OPEC—which helped double the price of oil to $40 per barrel.
3. Publicly, OPEC and the oil companies emphasize the ‘need for stability’ but privately use instability to laugh all the way to the bank;
4. With the cost of energy soaring, global inflation is making a comeback despite the lingering stagnation; and finally,
5. Global dominant capital is rather happy to see inflation in the offing.
[...]
*To read the whole article for free, please download it from our website (.pdf): * http://newsfromwithin.org/free_articles/Nitzan-Bichler%20Article_NfW_June-July%202004_web.pdf
-- Bryan Atinsky Editor, News from Within e-mail: bryan at alt-info.org Tel: (972)2-624-1159 P.O. Box 31417, Jerusalem 91313 http://www.newsfromwithin.org http://www.alternativenews.org