Nathan Newman wrote:
>No, don't ever be impressed with Crudele. He misrepresents things all
>the time, and is constantly attributing evil motives to the
>statisticians. The "mirage" jobs are an entirely defensible (and
>mostly quite accurate) estimate of slots created at startups; the BLS
>is constantly comparing these imputations to reality and finding the
>match pretty good. Ditto seasonal adjustment.
I'm not sure it's attributing "evil motives" for Crudele to think these particular adjustments for firm startups/deaths are inaccurate.
He's made his criticism, noted that the job creation numbers last July were unusually low because of these adjustments, then confidently predicted that the job numbers today would be significantly below estimates by other economists.
He was right, they were wrong.
-- Nathan Newman