There is a common quote, attributed in various versions to Arthur Schopenhauer, Arthur C. Clarke and Leo Szilard, which goes something like this: “Every new truth passes through three stages. In the beginning the experts ridicule it as ‘nonsense.’ Then they dismiss it as ‘trivial.’ And in the end we learn that they ‘said it all along.’”
Michael Pollak writes that “everyone” who expected chaos thought that oil prices would go up. To the best of my knowledge, most of those who opposed the war – including on the left -- thought that the US would be victorious, which is precisely why they opposed it. I must admit that I do not know what the opposition thought about oil prices; perhaps they all thought that these prices would go up. But as far as I know, those who have WRITTEN about it, usually said the exact opposite.
2. THE INFLATION THREAT.
We did not say there was an inflation threat. We said that inflation is making a comeback on the back of rising oil prices. Click on the link below to see the connection. http://www.economagic.com/mgif/M650940117020195250332081913.gif.
3. INFLATION AND ACCUMULATION.
Our definition of accumulation differs from both neoclassical and Marxist notions, and leads to totally different conclusions. We are concerned with "differential" accumulation, not “absolute” accumulation (which, in the final analysis, is denominated either in ‘utils’ or ‘abstract labour’ and is hence impossible to measure). Differential accumulation occurs when the profits of of a firm or group of firms grow faster (or fall more slowly) than the the average. The historical record suggests that differential accumulation is positively and tightly correlated with inflation. Figure 6 on page 256 in “Regime of Differential Accumulation” (full citation below) illustrates this correlation for the United States. Our broader argument is that inflation is NOT the best vehicle for differential accumulation; it is much better to do so through mergers and acquisition. But when M&As go into hibernation, which currently is the case, inflation becomes a tempting alternative.
Now, it is true “everyone” says that they fear inflation and that they are terrified of stagflation -- just as they all says that they fear recession and war. And yet, we all know that there are winners and loser in war and recession. Perhaps there are also winners and losers in inflation and stagflation? After all, power is relative, not absolute. When you lose less, you win....
For more on the subject, see:
Nitzan, Jonathan. 2001. Regimes of Differential Accumulation: Mergers, Stagflation and the Logic of Globalization. Review of International Political Economy 8 (2).
Nitzan, Jonathan, and Shimshon Bichler. 2002. The Global Political Economy of Israel. London: Pluto Press, Ch. 5: "The Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition"
Bichler, Shimshon, and Jonathan Nitzan. 2004 forthcoming. Differential Accumulation and Middle East Wars: Beyond Neo-Liberalism. In Global Regulation. Managing Crises After the Imperial Turn, edited by D. Wigan, L. Assassi and K. van der Pijl. London: Palgrave, pp. 43-60 (available as a pre-print under the title of “The End of Neoliberalism?” by clicking on the link or by searching the http://www.ypeonline.com).
Bichler, Shimshon, and Jonathan Nitzan. 2004. Dominant Capital and the New Wars. Journal of World-Systems Research 10 (2, August): 2-75. (The JWSR version will be available on Friday, August 13, at http://jwsr.ucr.edu/index.php. A pre-print is by from http://www.ypeonline.com).
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Jonathan Nitzan
Political Science, York University 4700 Keele St., Toronto, Ontario, M3J-1P3, Canada Voice: (416) 736-2100, ext. 88822 Fax: (416) 736-5686 E-mail: nitzan at yorku.ca
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