[lbo-talk] employment

Nathan Newman nathanne at nathannewman.org
Mon Aug 9 13:07:29 PDT 2004


----- Original Message ----- From: "Doug Henwood" <dhenwood at panix.com>
>The BLS's monthly employment
>estimates have improved markedly with their new techniques - last
>year's benchmark revision was quite small by historical standards.
>There's nothing "speculative" about the adjustments. They're based
>on statistical models that have been tested and refined for
>decades. You sound like a creationist denying the scientific >evidence
for evolution.

The monthly employment estimates and the household surveys are giving completely different messages each month. Last month, there were massive job gains according to the household survey. Now, there's little doubt that the establishment survey is more reliable, but it's not "creationism" to suspect that there are statistical problems in the establishment survey given these wide divergences.

And to repeat, you just can't convince me that the statistics are accurate for a whole range of workers in the informal economy, from undocumented workers to "independence contractors" to sweatshop laborers, whose work is not on any clear statistical radars. To argue such workers involve only a few percent of the workforce is hardly persuasive, since they are likely to involve a disproportionate share of any fluxuation in job creation and destruction.

Nathan Newman



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