Does anyone else get the feeling that the polling biz is about to pull another Literary Digest?
I don't do election polling, and I don't know what statistical techniques various firms are using, but I wonder if the polling outfits aren't falling prey to big time coverage error, seriously undercounting Kerry supporters. Huge numbers of new voters are being registered each week (and are thus not included in the polls we see), more and more younger voters have only cell phones, lower SES voters are more difficult to reach on the phone. I also wonder if the "likely voter" models being used are not out of date or just irrelevant: Ever since the primaries, there seems to be evidence of a larger than usual turnout motivated by intense and widespread desire to defeat Bush. And Kerry is now attracting huge crowds even in swing states (60,000 in Portland, 20,000 I think in Seattle, etc etc) that undermine media reports of his lackluster appeal. This year's likely voter may be quite different from 2000's likely voter.
Also, the internals of the polls we've seen lately indicate that, compared to 2000, Bush is losing support among Hispanics, Blacks, Arabs, Jews, and other demographic groups (most notably, independents). The internals also show that more Bush 2000 voters support Kerry than Gore voters support Bush. So how on earth do the numbers show a dead heat?
Right track/wrong track numbers are dismal for the incumbent, Iraq becomes bloodier and bleaker by the hour, the economy is stuck in low gear and millions are still out of work. Is Fear And Smear enough to make up for all of that?
Again, I don't do election polling, so I could be wrong. But I'd love to hear what others think about this. I am truly baffled.