> Yeah, so might a Mondale win 1984, which was 10 times more likely.
> Ferguson is entirely missing the elephant in the 1950s presidential
> elections: Eisenhower was the most popular man *in the world.* He was
the
> most successful general in the greatest war the world had ever seen.
The
> reason both the Democrats and the Republicans offered him their
candidacy
> in 1952 (including Truman, who legally could have run again but
decided
> against it) was because they both knew that whoever ran him as their
> candidate would win. It was as simple as that. The only chance Adlai
(or
> anyone else) had in 1956 was if Ike died.
Maybe, but Adlai also had a peculiar disadvantage that handicapped him even if he did not run against the popular Eisenhower/Nixon ticket. He was branded an intellectual - which for the most of middle America is almost as bad a being a Communist. He would have lost even without Ike being in the race.
This, btw, suggests how much this country has changed during the past 50 or so years. Bush courts the populist anti-modern, anti-intellectual, anti-urban middle 'Murika and he trailing slightly behind the "intellectual" Gore or Kerry. Fifty years ago Gore or Kerry would not have had a chance - they would not be able to get more than 10 or so percent of the popular vote, just like Adlai.
Wojtek