[lbo-talk] polling complications

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Aug 31 13:04:01 PDT 2004


Michael Perelman wrote:


>In the interview with your Gallop friend

Hardly. He's the editor-in-chief. It's the one and only time we've spoken.


>, he said that cell phones were not a distorting
>factor. Was he blowing smoke?

That's been the standard line up until recently - not enough people have given up land lines for cell phones yet to make a difference. If the trend has continued, and if it's concentrated among a specific subset of the pop, it could make a diff.

Presidential elections are a big test for the polling industry - their final results get compared to the real thing in front of the whole world, and it affects their commercial business. So it wouldn't be in their interest to blow smoke; it's much more in their interest to get it right.

So Nov 2 will be a big test for the pollsters.

Doug



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