Introductory Observations:
Russian President Vladimar Putin’s visit to India from December 2-5, 2004 has been a significant one for the Russia-India relationship. It is significant in the context of the international security environment and with particular reference to South Asian security. It is also significant in the context of India’s global aspirations and India’s comprehensive security requirements.
At the turn of the millennium, India stood poised towards striking a ‘natural ally’ relationship with the United States. There was a buoyancy in India’s approaches spurred by the statements of the outgoing President Clinton and the incoming President Bush. Four years down the line, the United States has failed to honour India’s regional preeminence or her global aspirations. It seems to have sadly dawned on India that the United States in the follow-up of 9/11 has reverted once again in South Asia to the Cold War formulations of over-riding strategic priority to Pakistan in South Asia.
Four years down the line, Russia also seems to have changed in terms of her foreign policy perceptions. The concepts of “Russia as a natural ally of the West” (Propagated by the former Russian Foreign Minister) and the “China First” in Russia’s Foreign Policy White Paper of 2000 seem to stand diluted.
President Putin’s Visit to India- December 2004:
President Putin’s visit to India in December 2004 therefore has taken place at an opportune time when there seems to be an underlying process of re-assessment of options, both in Russia and India.
President Putin can be said to be seriously attempting to re-build the strategic partnership that existed between Russia and India during the Cold War period. Russia had let this partnership smolder in the post-cold war period of the 1990’s.
The above is evidenced by the composition of the Russian President's high-powered delegation. Besides President Putin, it included:
Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Zhukov. Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov. Minister for Information Technology and Communications. Director General of Russian Atomic Agency. Russian industry heads.
The Russian Defence Minister had arrived earlier than the President for detailed two-day discussions with the Indian Defence Minister.
The summit meeting between President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh produced:
Joint declaration emphasizing the strategic partnership between Russia and India.
Ten MOUs and agreements covering bilateral cooperation in fields of outer space exploration, energy, navigation, visa services and banking.
Details of the above stand amply covered in the media.
The intention in this paper is to analyse and focus on the highlights of President Putin’s visit which can be viewed as re-kindling of the Russia-India strategic partnership and these are discussed below.
Russia-India Strategic Partnership Re-kindled and Intensely Emphasised:
President Putin declared during the New Delhi Summit that: “India is our strategic privileged partner…And speaking from the point of view of geographical representation…India is number one”.
The emphasis is to be interpreted both in the geopolitical context and also in the military context.
In terms of geo-political interpretation one could say that Russia accords primacy to India in the Indian sub-continent and all that it implies.
In the military context it stresses that Russia recognizes India not only as a strategic partner but also as a “privileged strategic partner”. If this is Russia’s emphasis truly, then the long range prospect of Russia-India strategic cooperation is pregnant with exciting prospects.
Russia Supports India’s Candidature for United Nations Security Council Permanent Membership With Full Veto Powers:
Despite Indian media’s initial misinterpretation, Russia’s President left no doubts on this score when he later declared: “We are fully supportive of India’s claim and it should get all the rights of a permanent member, including the power to veto”.
Nothing could warm Indian hearts more than the above unambiguous statement by the Russian President. This unequivocal commitment by Russia adds substance to the Russia-India strategic partnership. It would greatly assist in re-kindling the erstwhile strategic partnership.
India as a whole would greatly appreciate this gesture of the Russian President as comparatively, the United State, so far has not even supported India’s candidature and China after initial silence has now come out with some qualified statements on the subject.
Russia-India Space Exploration Co-operation:
A more comprehensive agreement has been signed by Russia and India for cooperation in the field of exploration and use of outer space. It is likely that this new agreement would have inbuilt guarantees to guard against any hold-backs by Russia under United States pressure and therefore it is replacing the earlier 1994 agreement on the subject.
Russia-India Agreement on Strategic Cooperation in Energy Sector:
Russia and India have agreed to undertake strategic cooperation for oil and natural gas exploration. India already has a 20% in Sakhalin oil development and exploration rights for four oil fields, and pipeline projects. In term of India’s comprehensive security, the importance of energy security is pivotal. Russia is the second largest oil producer in the world and India’s energy needs are fast multiplying. India also strategically needs to diversify its dependence on Middle East oil.
In a related additional MOU India’s Gas Authority has signed an agreement with its Russian counterpart envisaging underground storage projects in India. Another MOU covers Russia’s assistance for development and technology transfer for lignite gasification projects in Rajasthan and Tamilnadu.
Russia-India Defence Cooperation:
Defence cooperation is the corner stone or an “important pillar” (as the Indian Prime Minister terms it) of Russia-India strategic partnership. This was also evident by the early arrival of the Russian Defence Minister to prepare President Putin’s defence agenda discussions.
Major points that have emerged on this count during the Russian President’s visits are:
Russia and India will move from a “ buyer-seller” relationship to an expanded joint research and development and joint production of weapon systems’
Joint investment in the Brahmos cruise missile will be enhanced for grater production.
Both countries will explore joint production of fifth generation strike combat aircraft.
Joint air-borne troops' exercise will be held.
Intellectual property rights agreement in relation to defence production would be finalised within five months.
Agreements on upgradation of existing Russian weapon systems in India were signed.
Supply of Russians spares for India’s future requirements were discussed and procedures streamlined.
The emphasis on joint research development and production of weapon systems is notable in many ways. For India the advantage lies in quantum jumps in weapons technology expertise, a greater self-reliance, lessening India’s burden on defence R&D and the prospectus of joint international marketing like in the case of the Brahmos cruise missile.
Concluding Observations:
Russia and India have a history of a shared strategic partnership in the past. The post-cold war era, which witnessed some de-valuation of this relationship, primarily from the Russian side, seems to be getting over.
The Russian President's visit to India this month and the extent of discussions and agreements arrived at indicate that Russia once again, desires to invest heavily in re-kindling Russia-India strategic partnership catering for India’s “comprehensive security requirements”. The stimuli for re-kindling of the Russia-India strategic partnership seem to have been provided by the United States. In the case of Russia, the gradual encroachment by the United States in Russia’s turf is a matter of concern for the Russian President. For India, the United States reluctance to give pre-eminence to India in the Indian sub-continent, giving strategic pre-eminence to Pakistan and American double standards on counter-terrorism and WMD proliferation (with relation to Pakistan) has disillusioned India and cause strategic concern.
The Russian Presidents public espousal of India’s Permanent membership of UN security Council with full veto powers does not only under-score India’s global aspirations but also under-writes with value-added emphasis that Russia is serious about a substantive strategic partnership with India. This was sentimentally articulated by President Putin on his final leg of the tour at Bangalore that: “we don’t have problem between our two states. Our two nations are allies and friends for years to come. We are natural allies.”
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group.)
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