John Bizwas wrote:
>
>
> This is an issue where Iranian, US and Israeli interests converge somewhat
> and have long worked to counter a unified Iraq. The Sunni insurgency has
> absolutely no reason whatsoever of starting a Sunni-on-Shia civil war, whereas it
> would serve the purposes of Israel, some interests in Iran and the US--and the Kurds,
> too--very well.
While we are in a highly speculative enterprise here (speculating on the motives of events which themselves are speculative), this seems to me to be among the more reasonable suggestions. If a stable u.s. puppet regime proves impractical, a bitterly divided Iraq (on the model of the former Yugoslavia) would probably be more appealing to the u.s. than any of the alternatives.
It is also the alternative on which anti-war forces, both in the u.s. itself and worldwide, would have least leverage.
Carrol