First, let me say I haven't found sources like Juan Cole (I think he's one confused soul anyway) or Nation Mag writers to be very good on Iraq at all.
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Yes, I have my own set of issues with Professor Cole's interpretations of events - though I have to say I respect and admire his efforts to provide his readers with information from primary Arab and Iranian sources.
I'm curious as to why you describe him as "confused". His position seems pretty consistent even if I don't always agree with elements of his analysis.
Quoting John Bizwas again:
It's widely reported that the 'Shia' support elections, but what information is this really based on? I'm not saying that there isn't some information that would support the view, but right now we have a lot of journalists simply citing each other to make it look like 'fact'...
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This is an interesting question and only now do I realized that I can't really trace this often reported Shia enthusiasm to any source or sources aside from the statements of commentators and 'journalists'.
For example, to press Prof. Cole into service yet again, a text search for the word "elections" on his blog's homepage illuminates the following lines:
Jalal Eddin al-Sagheer, an official with the leading Shiite political party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution. ``The whole issue has to do with elections.'' '
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The Shiites know that the elections are the surest way to win political power commensurate with their majority in the population, power they have been denied throughout the history of modern Iraq.
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The geography of the attacks continues to suggest that the guerrillas are attempting to provoke Shiite on Sunni violence as a way of disrupting stability. Likewise, they are attempting to demonstrate that they can effectively torpedo any attempt to hold elections.
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The Sadr movement is strong in East Baghdad, but Sadr has declared neutrality toward the upcoming elections, while many Shiites are hopeful that they will produce a Shiite-dominated government that will pave the way for the end of the US occupation.
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The theme of hopeful Shias is repeated often but how this is known is never cited.
As you say, it may very well be the case (it certainly sounds like a reasonable assumption) but there appears to be a long shadow between statement and evidence.
.d.