Kerry Strengthens Lead to 48 Percent, 35 Points Ahead of Nearest Rival Dean; Wins in Match-Up With Bush (50% To 45%)
Fifty-Eight Percent Say Gay Marriage Should Not Be Legal; Majority Says Issue of Gay Marriage Very Important (22%) or Somewhat Important (32%) in Determining Their Vote for President
NEW YORK, Feb. 7 /PRNewswire/ -- President George W. Bush's approval rating has slipped to 48 percent, the lowest level since February 2001, according to the Newsweek poll. Fifty percent of registered voters say they would not like to see Bush re-elected to a second term (45% say they would). And if the election were held today, Democratic frontrunner Sen. John Kerry would win over Bush by 50 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. However Bush would have clear wins over Democratic contenders Sen. John Edwards (49% to 44%), former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (50% to 44%) and retired General Wesley Clark (51% to 43%).
Sen. Kerry has also strengthened his lead among Democrats and Democratic- leaning voters in the race for the Democratic nomination. Kerry places first in the field with 48 percent, while Dean, his closest rival, follows with 13 percent (last week Kerry led with 45% to Dean's 14%). Edwards is in third place with 10 percent, followed by Clark with nine percent (an improvement of four points for Clark who last week received 5%). Almost two-thirds (65%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaners say Kerry is their first or second choice, followed by Dean (32%) and Edwards (31%).
Meanwhile, following the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court's ruling last week that its landmark decision in support of gay marriage meant full marriage rights and not civil unions, almost half (45%) of Americans say efforts to protect the rights of gays and lesbians have gone too far; 25 percent say more effort is needed, 22 percent say the right amount of effort has been made. Fifty-eight percent of Americans says there should not be legally-sanctioned gay marriages (33% disagree), while 51 percent say there should not be legally-sanctioned gay and lesbian unions or partnerships (40% disagree).
Americans, however, are more deeply and more evenly divided on whether they support an amendment to the Constitution. Forty-seven percent say they would favor a Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in all states, with 45 percent opposing it. (Of those numbers 43% would strongly favor it, while 35% would strongly oppose it).
Despite their views on gay marriage, Americans are almost evenly split on whether gays and lesbians should have the right to legally adopt children; 47 percent say they should not, while 45 percent disagree. When it comes to economic issues, a large majority (60%) says gay spouses should have health insurance and other employee benefits (33% disagree). Sixty percent also say gay spouses should have inheritance rights (30% disagree) and 55 percent say they should have social security benefits (36% disagree). An overwhelming majority of Americans (87%) says that there should be equal rights for gays and lesbians in terms of job opportunities (10% disagree) and 60 percent say gays and lesbians should be able to openly serve in the military (29% disagree).
Fifty-four percent of registered voters say the issue of gay marriage will be either very important (22%) or somewhat important (32%) in determining their vote for president this year. Twenty percent say it won't be too important and 21 percent say it's not at all important. Thirty-eight percent say Bush comes closer to reflecting their own views on gay marriage, while 29 percent say Kerry does.
Asked about Bush and Kerry's stance on gay marriage, a majority (54%) of registered voters respond "don't know" when asked Kerry's views, compared with 29 percent who say the same of Bush. Forty-nine percent say, based on what they've seen in the news, Bush would support a Constitutional amendment, if necessary, to ban gay marriage in all states (7% say Kerry would do the same). Twelve percent say Bush believes the issue should be left up to individual states (14% say this of Kerry); nine percent say Bush supports gay civil unions but not gay marriage (17% say this of Kerry); and one percent says Bush favors full marriage rights for gays and lesbians (8% say this of Kerry).
Turning to the role of candidates' wives in the presidential race, almost a third (31%) of Americans say former First Lady Hillary Clinton comes closest to their image of what a first lady should be; in a three-way tie for second place are First Lady Laura Bush and former First Ladies Barbara Bush and Nancy Reagan, with 20 percent each. Almost two thirds (62%) say a first lady should be involved in politics, while 32 percent disagree; 75 percent of Democrats feel this way (21% disagree); and 50 percent of Republicans feel this way (44% disagree).
When deciding which presidential candidate to support, 67 percent say it is either very important (25%) or somewhat important (42%) for them to learn about the candidate's spouse. Seventy-two percent say the relationship between a candidate and his spouse tells voters either a lot (40%) or something (32%) about how good a president he would be; 13 percent say it tells you not much and 12 percent say it tells you nothing.
For this Newsweek poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,004 adults aged 18 and older on February 5-6, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points. This poll is part of the February 16 issue of Newsweek (on Newsstands Monday, February 9).