[lbo-talk] "A Nasty, Brutish & Long War" (Iraqi communists on "resistance")

Sat Feb 14 10:53:50 PST 2004

>Stephen E Philion wrote:
>
>>--are they not receiving enough popular support to sustain a pretty 
>>impressive anti-occupation force w/o being turned in to the 
>>occupation authority?
>
>Dunno about that - the capitalist hyena press, or at least the NYT 
>branch of that beast, reports that the occupation forces have been 
>fairly successful at arresting leaders of the resistance. And it's 
>not likely that they could have captured Saddam himself without some 
>help from the locals.
>
>Doug

Christian Parenti puts it this way:

*****   On the one hand, aggressive new counterinsurgency tactics -- 
including high-tech surveillance, precision artillery, constant 
raids, mass detention and the fencing off of whole villages -- are 
doing serious damage to the armed underground.  But these same 
tactics also humiliate and enrage many otherwise pro-US Iraqis, 
possibly expanding the pool of potential recruits for the guerrillas.

Meanwhile, the highly decentralized and secretive resistance has 
enough popular support and equipment to continue reproducing itself 
for some time to come.  But the insurgency lacks the ideological 
coherence or organization it would need to grow into a more 
formidable force.  And its tactics, like the Americans', though at 
times effective, alienate many war-weary Iraqis.

("Two Sides: Scenes from a Nasty, Brutish & Long War," _The Nation_, 
February 23, 2004, p. 11)   *****

What Parenti calls "a lopsided and contradiction-fraught stalemate" 
(Parenti, p. 11) is likely to continue.  Whether the armed resistance 
will grow larger depends on whether it develops coherent political 
ideology, leadership, and organization.

*****   Military Fatalities: By Month:
Period   US  UK Other* Total  Avg  Days
2-2004   11   1   1     13    0.93  14
1-2004   46   5   0     51    1.65  31
12-2003  40   0   8     48    1.55  31
11-2003  82   1  27    110    3.67  30
10-2003  42   1   2     45    1.45  31
9-2003   31   1   1     33     1.1  30
8-2003   35   6   2     43    1.39  31
7-2003   47   1   0     48    1.55  31
6-2003   30   6   0     36     1.2  30
5-2003   37   4   0     41    1.32  31
4-2003   73   6   0     79    2.63  30
3-2003   65  27   0     92    7.67  12
Total   539  59  41    639    1.92 332

<http://lunaville.org/warcasualties/Summary.aspx>   *****

The armed resistance is practically leaderless, so arrests of 
suspected leaders hardly make a difference -- the most effective 
counter-insurgency tactic in the short term is probably collective 
punishment such as "constant raids, mass detention and the fencing 
off of whole villages" (Parenti, p. 11), which can backfire later.

The military fatalities went down from last November, but the numbers 
have crept back up.  Then, there are increasing attacks on Iraqi 
police officers and recruits:

*****   . . . Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt . . . reported daily averages 
of 24 attacks against coalition military targets, just fewer than 
three attacks against Iraqi security forces and just over one attack 
against Iraqi civilians.

Kimmitt said it is too early to discern if this is a permanent uptick 
in the numbers. In past weeks, there was an average of 18 attacks per 
day. . . .

Anti-coalition actions against Iraqi security forces have mounted. 
"We've had about 300 Iraqi police killed in the line of duty" since 
that force restarted in May, Kimmitt said. . . .

(Jim Garamone, "Military Operations, Political Track Continue to Move 
Forward," American Forces Press Service, February 7, 2004, 
<http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Feb2004/n02072004_200402071.html>) 
*****

Here's a novel development -- an operation that freed about 200 
prisoners today, rumored to be conducted by the (Shiite) Badr Brigade:

*****    The New York Times
February 15, 2004
22 Die as Raid on Iraqi Police Unit Frees Prisoners
By DEXTER FILKINS

FALLUJA, Iraq, Feb. 14 - Guerrillas shouting "God is great" staged a 
brazen assault on the main police station here on Saturday, blasting 
their way inside, killing at least 15 police officers and freeing 
dozens of prisoners.

Two of the attackers were killed as well as five Iraqi civilians, 
bringing the number dead to 22, if not more. At least 33 people were 
wounded.

The attack seemed highly organized, and was twinned with a 
simultaneous attack on a civil defense station nearby. . . .

It was unclear how many prisoners escaped from the jail. Some 
officers said that about 200 had been released, and that most had 
simply run into the streets. One Iraqi police officer said the 
attackers had taken 18 prisoners with them.

The attack on Saturday follows an extraordinarily violent week in 
Iraq. This week alone, two suicide bombings killed more than 100 
people.

Some of the Falluja police officers said the captured men had been 
members of the Badr Brigade, a militia of the Supreme Council for the 
Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an Iraqi political party that is 
suspected of having links to Iranian intelligence services.

After the battle, the Iraqi police recovered a black battle flag with 
Arabic writing proclaiming the first lines of the Koran, "There is no 
God but God, and Muhammad is God's prophet." The flag was emblazoned 
with the name of an organization, "The Army of Unity and Holy War."

In the Muslim world, black is the color of the Shiites. . . .

<http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/15/international/middleeast/15IRAQ.html> 
*****

Most importantly, how long do you think unemployed Iraqis -- 70% of 
the labor force -- will refrain from the use of force?

*****    "I haven't been working at all for the last two weeks," 
complained Hassan Kadhim, 27, who lives in Sadr City, the big Shiite 
ghetto on the city's outskirts. "If I stay like this for another week 
my family will starve, and if someone comes with $50 and asks me to 
toss a grenade at the Americans, I'll do it with pleasure."

(Neela Banerjee and John H. Cushman Jr., "Unemployed Iraqis Say New 
Jobs Will Pay Off in Greater Security for All," 
<http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/08/international/middleeast/08ECON.html>) 
*****
-- 
Yoshie

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