Christian Parenti puts it this way:
***** On the one hand, aggressive new counterinsurgency tactics -- including high-tech surveillance, precision artillery, constant raids, mass detention and the fencing off of whole villages -- are doing serious damage to the armed underground. But these same tactics also humiliate and enrage many otherwise pro-US Iraqis, possibly expanding the pool of potential recruits for the guerrillas.
Meanwhile, the highly decentralized and secretive resistance has enough popular support and equipment to continue reproducing itself for some time to come. But the insurgency lacks the ideological coherence or organization it would need to grow into a more formidable force. And its tactics, like the Americans', though at times effective, alienate many war-weary Iraqis.
("Two Sides: Scenes from a Nasty, Brutish & Long War," _The Nation_, February 23, 2004, p. 11) *****
What Parenti calls "a lopsided and contradiction-fraught stalemate" (Parenti, p. 11) is likely to continue. Whether the armed resistance will grow larger depends on whether it develops coherent political ideology, leadership, and organization.
***** Military Fatalities: By Month: Period US UK Other* Total Avg Days 2-2004 11 1 1 13 0.93 14 1-2004 46 5 0 51 1.65 31 12-2003 40 0 8 48 1.55 31 11-2003 82 1 27 110 3.67 30 10-2003 42 1 2 45 1.45 31 9-2003 31 1 1 33 1.1 30 8-2003 35 6 2 43 1.39 31 7-2003 47 1 0 48 1.55 31 6-2003 30 6 0 36 1.2 30 5-2003 37 4 0 41 1.32 31 4-2003 73 6 0 79 2.63 30 3-2003 65 27 0 92 7.67 12 Total 539 59 41 639 1.92 332
<http://lunaville.org/warcasualties/Summary.aspx> *****
The armed resistance is practically leaderless, so arrests of suspected leaders hardly make a difference -- the most effective counter-insurgency tactic in the short term is probably collective punishment such as "constant raids, mass detention and the fencing off of whole villages" (Parenti, p. 11), which can backfire later.
The military fatalities went down from last November, but the numbers have crept back up. Then, there are increasing attacks on Iraqi police officers and recruits:
***** . . . Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt . . . reported daily averages of 24 attacks against coalition military targets, just fewer than three attacks against Iraqi security forces and just over one attack against Iraqi civilians.
Kimmitt said it is too early to discern if this is a permanent uptick in the numbers. In past weeks, there was an average of 18 attacks per day. . . .
Anti-coalition actions against Iraqi security forces have mounted. "We've had about 300 Iraqi police killed in the line of duty" since that force restarted in May, Kimmitt said. . . .
(Jim Garamone, "Military Operations, Political Track Continue to Move Forward," American Forces Press Service, February 7, 2004, <http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Feb2004/n02072004_200402071.html>) *****
Here's a novel development -- an operation that freed about 200 prisoners today, rumored to be conducted by the (Shiite) Badr Brigade:
***** The New York Times February 15, 2004 22 Die as Raid on Iraqi Police Unit Frees Prisoners By DEXTER FILKINS
FALLUJA, Iraq, Feb. 14 - Guerrillas shouting "God is great" staged a brazen assault on the main police station here on Saturday, blasting their way inside, killing at least 15 police officers and freeing dozens of prisoners.
Two of the attackers were killed as well as five Iraqi civilians, bringing the number dead to 22, if not more. At least 33 people were wounded.
The attack seemed highly organized, and was twinned with a simultaneous attack on a civil defense station nearby. . . .
It was unclear how many prisoners escaped from the jail. Some officers said that about 200 had been released, and that most had simply run into the streets. One Iraqi police officer said the attackers had taken 18 prisoners with them.
The attack on Saturday follows an extraordinarily violent week in Iraq. This week alone, two suicide bombings killed more than 100 people.
Some of the Falluja police officers said the captured men had been members of the Badr Brigade, a militia of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an Iraqi political party that is suspected of having links to Iranian intelligence services.
After the battle, the Iraqi police recovered a black battle flag with Arabic writing proclaiming the first lines of the Koran, "There is no God but God, and Muhammad is God's prophet." The flag was emblazoned with the name of an organization, "The Army of Unity and Holy War."
In the Muslim world, black is the color of the Shiites. . . .
<http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/15/international/middleeast/15IRAQ.html> *****
Most importantly, how long do you think unemployed Iraqis -- 70% of the labor force -- will refrain from the use of force?
***** "I haven't been working at all for the last two weeks," complained Hassan Kadhim, 27, who lives in Sadr City, the big Shiite ghetto on the city's outskirts. "If I stay like this for another week my family will starve, and if someone comes with $50 and asks me to toss a grenade at the Americans, I'll do it with pleasure."
(Neela Banerjee and John H. Cushman Jr., "Unemployed Iraqis Say New Jobs Will Pay Off in Greater Security for All," <http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/08/international/middleeast/08ECON.html>) ***** -- Yoshie
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