HAITI Current Upheaval
Updated: February 13, 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
What is causing the current unrest in Haiti? A coalition of armed groups is trying to oust President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the former Roman Catholic priest who won the country's first democratic presidential elections in 1990. The anti-Aristide fighters are vying with pro-government forces for control of nearly a dozen towns across the country. Some 50 people have died in the violence so far, according to news reports. Aristide has vowed to stay in power until the end of his term in 2006, despite local and international calls for him to step down.
Why is it happening now? Experts say violence has long simmered in Haiti, which has experienced more than 30 coups since independence in 1804. The current crisis, they say, began with Aristide's controversial re-election in 2000, which was boycotted by all the major opposition parties; voter turnout was only 5 percent. That suspect election has created a political stalemate. Parliament has stopped functioning; the terms of most legislators expired in January. International aid donors have blocked millions of dollars, worsening Haiti's dire economic situation. A series of violent clashes-gunmen attacked the National Palace in Port-au-Prince in 2001, and police broke up opposition and civil society rallies in 2002 and 2003-led to a government crackdown on opposition members and increased tension. Opposition groups have long called for Aristide's removal. However, they do not condone the current violence, which broke out February 5 in the northern opposition stronghold of Gonaives following months of anti-Aristide protests.
What is the economic situation in Haiti? Haiti is one of the poorest countries in the world. It ranks 150th out of 175 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index. The U.S. State Department classified the country's current situation as "economic stagnation" caused by ineffective economic policies, political instability, environmental deterioration, the lack of a functioning judiciary, and the migration of skilled workers, among other factors. Most of Haiti's 8 million people live on less than $1 per day, despite promises by Aristide to better the lives of the poor. "Many people have suffered under the catastrophic nature of the economy," says Robert Fatton, Jr., chair of the politics department at the University of Virginia and an expert on Haiti. Fatton says that the anti-Aristide forces have broadened their appeal beyond the elites and now attract support from the middle and lower-middle classes. But, he adds, "Aristide may still be the single most popular figure in the country, and he still has some significant support among the very poor."
Who are the rebels? A collection of insurgents and armed gang members, experts say. They are led by Butter Metayer, head of the Revolutionary Anti-Aristide Front. Metayer's brother, Amiot Metayer, was a noted gang leader who headed the "Cannibal Army," a pro-Aristide armed band, before his assassination in September 2003. Metayer's followers blamed Aristide for the murder and turned against him. Other insurgents include ex-prisoners and former members of Haiti's national army, which Aristide disbanded in 1994. The insurgents, estimated by experts to number in the thousands, are armed with weapons ranging from M-16s and old bazookas to rocks.
Who are they fighting? The 3,000 to 5,000 members of Haiti's poorly trained police force, according to news reports. The police are armed with M-16s and helicopters, Fatton says. The rebels are also clashing with pro-Aristide armed gangs whom some experts say Aristide pays to maintain his power and intimidate opponents. "They're basically unemployed youths armed by Aristide to act as a political strike force," says Jim Morrell, executive director of The Haiti Democracy Project, a Washington-based think tank that has criticized Aristide.
How long has Aristide been in power? On and off since 1991. After the end of the 29-year Duvalier family dictatorship in 1986, Aristide won Haiti's first democratic elections in 1990 with 67 percent of the vote on a platform that championed the poor. He took office in February 1991 but was overthrown six months later by Haiti's military. The military coup was supported by the country's ruling elite, who feared that Aristide's appeals to the poor would erode their privileges, experts say. Harsh military rule over the next three years caused a flood of Haitian "boat people" to flee to the United States. In 1994, U.S.-led military action authorized by U.N. Security Council Resolution 940 sent 20,000 troops to Haiti to restore Aristide to power. U.S. forces stayed more than a year, helping rebuild the country's roads and bridges and protecting staffers from some 20 other international aid groups, including the U.S. Agency for International Development and the World Bank. The aid workers laid the groundwork for a new police force and civil society groups, and helped strengthen the judicial system. Critics say progress stopped when the aid groups and U.S. troops withdrew. Still, Haitian authorities organized internationally recognized local and parliamentary elections in 1995. After serving his first term, Aristide again ran for president in 2000. Disputes about the results of the 2000 parliamentary election led opposition groups to boycott the presidential election, and Aristide ran unopposed.
Is there a Haitian Army? No. After returning to power in 1994, Aristide disbanded the army. But experts say there was no systematic disarmament policy, and the newly unemployed soldiers joined private armed gangs that were either for or against Aristide's administration. The gang members started behaving like warlords, experts say, roaming their territories with impunity and becoming increasingly powerful and dangerous. "You no longer know who's the patron, as it were," Fatton says.
What does the opposition want? The political opposition-a coalition of businessmen, communists, socialists, artists, and former supporters of Aristide-is organized as the Democratic Platform of Civil Society and Political Parties, Morrell says. This includes the Convergence Democratique and the Group of 184, a collection of civil society groups. They have distanced themselves from the armed gangs. Experts say these groups are pushing for the re-establishment of Parliament and, eventually, free and fair elections. But Fatton says that such a disparate group can't settle on a unified goal. "Besides seeing Aristide gone, they're not sure what they want," he says. "Some just want order restored, while others might long for another strongman."
What is the U.S. position on the situation? The United States is pushing for a negotiated political solution to the crisis, administration officials say. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell met with regional officials and the Canadian and Haitian ambassadors during the week of February 9; experts say they are discussing a possible Caribbean-Canadian police force for Haiti. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said in a briefing February 10 that Haiti needs a political solution brought about by dialogue, negotiations, and compromise, which would also involve "some fairly thorough changes in the way Haiti is governed and how the security situation is maintained." While senior U.S. administration officials have reportedly hinted that they might not be opposed to regime change in Haiti, there will not be any U.S. troops involved: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said in a briefing February 10 that the United States has "no plans to do anything" in Haiti.
What is the United State's main concern about Haiti? U.S. officials are particularly concerned, experts say, about refugees fleeing on boats to the United States if the current conflict worsens. In 1991 and 1992 alone, the U.S. Coast Guard intercepted some 41,000 Haitians at sea, more than the previous 10 years combined. Reuters reported on February 11 that U.S. officials briefed non-governmental organizations of their plans to accommodate up to 50,000 Haitian refugees at the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, in the event of another refugee crisis.
What international efforts are under way to address the crisis? Many nations, including France, the former colonial power in Haiti, have called for an end to the violence. Experts say the Organization of American States (OAS) and the 15-nation Caribbean Community (CARICOM) are pursuing a negotiated solution. Powell met with officials from the OAS February 13 to discuss possible international intervention in Haiti, experts say. The United Nations has also dispatched a team to Haiti to evaluate the humanitarian situation, which is worsening as violence threatens to cut off towns from access to relief supplies.
Are there any clear successors or alternatives to Aristide? Many experts say no, despite the existence of established opposition political parties. Fatton points out that the country has no security, no civil society, and no infrastructure. He calls the idea of holding elections any time soon a "frivolous and dangerous ... joke," though he adds that they must be held once public order is restored and gangs are disarmed. Others say the United States, having intervened in the country and set up democratic institution-building programs there, bears at least partial responsibility for the current situation in Haiti.
What is likely to happen next? No one knows. But some experts say one of several outcomes is likely:
* International organizations propose a negotiated solution-likely including provisions for the creation of a national unity government and a so-called council of wise men to advise the president and the installation of a new prime minister, according to experts-and persuade Aristide and the opposition to accept it. * Aristide prevails, which many experts say could lead to continued violence as he exacts revenge on his opponents. * Aristide is forced to step down, and an internationally monitored transitional administration is established until democratic elections can be held, as happened recently in Liberia.
Experts stress that the situation could shift at any time. "It's a very complicated, fluid situation in Haiti," Fatton says. "There's no guarantee that what happens next is any better."
-- by Esther Pan, staff writer, cfr.org