***** February 26, 2004 The Nader Factor Supporters among those least likely to vote, but candidacy threatens Democratic nominee
by Jeffrey M. Jones
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
. . . Nader Support
A September 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found that just under one in four Americans, 23%, said they would like to see Nader run for president in 2004, while 66% said they would not. It is difficult to know how many of those who would like to see him run would actually vote for Nader on Election Day, as opposed to expressing support for the general notion that more choices on Election Day are better. However, this percentage could be considered a possible ceiling on Nader's support. Enthusiasm for a Nader presidential bid in the September 2003 poll was highest among 18- to 29-year-olds (39% wanted to see him run for president) and among political independents (29%).
In fact, these two groups were among the most likely to have voted for Nader, according to aggregated data from Gallup's final week of election tracking in 2000. Nader's 2000 support showed a downward trend with age -- his support among 18- to 29-year-old likely voters was 9%, compared with 5% among 30- to 49-year-old likely voters, 4% among 50- to 64-year-olds, and 3% among those 65 and older.
Fourteen percent of "pure" political independents -- those who do not identify with or "lean" to either of the two major parties -- gave their support to Nader in 2000, compared with 6% among Democrats and Democratic leaners and just 2% of Republicans and Republican leaners. Of course, these figures may overstate the relationship somewhat, as current voting intentions often influence one's self-reported party identification, and those supporting a third-party candidate may therefore be more likely to say they are non-leaning independents.
Ideological liberals also gave considerable support to Nader in 2000. Eleven percent of likely voters who described themselves as liberal -- including 21% of those who said they were "very liberal" -- supported Nader in 2000. This compares with just 4% of moderates and 2% of conservatives who intended to vote for Nader. In Gallup's final pre-election poll, Nader actually outpolled Bush among liberal voters, while the vast majority of them (78%) supported Gore.
The challenge for Nader's candidacy, surely as it was in 2000, is that his supporters tend to come from groups that are among those least likely to vote. Only 36% of 18- to 29-year-olds in Gallup's final week of tracking data could be considered likely voters, compared with 59% of 30- to 49-year-olds, 74% of 50- to 64-year-olds, and 72% of those 65 and older. Likewise, just 34% of non-leaning independents were likely to vote in 2000, compared with 67% of Republicans and Republican leaners and 61% of Democrats and Democratic leaners. Even liberals (53%) tended to score lower than moderates (56%) and conservatives (67%) on the "likely voter" scale. . . .
<http://www.gallup.com/content/print.asp?ci=10798> ***** -- Yoshie
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