[lbo-talk] Keiretsu Capital

jjlassen at chinastudygroup.org jjlassen at chinastudygroup.org
Tue Jan 13 14:41:03 PST 2004


Doug,

Between 1978-2002, 330 million 'jobs' were created in China. The population also grew by about 300 million during this period. There was basically full employment in 1978 before the reforms began, now there is what the Chinese economists refer to as a 'surplus population' of around 200 million in rural China, while there are between 30-50 million 'formally unemployed' people in the cities, and 10s of millions of migrant workers who are out of work at any time, or are never able to collect their wages (the Chinese gov. estimates about US$12 billion in back wages is owed to migrants) - that raises an interesting question: if you enter into an employment agreement but never get paid, does that count as a 'job'?

So it's a close call for the job creation/destruction checksum, but a clear positive value for population growth.

Jonathan

Is it a negative sum, or even zero sum, game though? You could have employment rising, but the demand for employment rising even faster. What's happening in China?

Doug

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