> China will be probably
>more
>vulnerable than India due to its increased exposition to external trade and
FDI
>(Hi, Ulhas, how is FDI as % of India nominal GDP???)
See the article "Why FDI bypasses India". Though it's written from a liberal perspective, provides some useful data. India has received about $30 bn in the nineties (1991-2000), FDI $20 bn and portfolio investment $10bn. This would be less than 1% of India's GDP.
Anecdotal evidence and media speculation suggests that foreign portfolio investment is in reality Indian owned capital returning to India for investment in stockmarkets (money stashed away by Indian residents in Swiss banks, Cayman Islands etc.) Interestingly Virgin Islands said to be the second largest source of FDI in China, Hongkong being the largest.:-)
If you consider large corporates listed on Indian bourses, you get somewhat different picture. I found that about 20-25% of the total market capitalisation of large listed corporates belongs to listed MNCs, when I checked couple of years ago.
Ulhas