What it means is this: I had Lakshman on my radio show last night. He's research director at the Economic Cycles Research Institute, which produces a weekly leading index for the U.S. economy. The WLI has been trending downwards for the last several months (though it's still positive). He interpreted that as meaning that the economy will slow in the latter part of the year. This morning's reading on the WLI was up, so I asked him if that changed anything. As you can see, he said no.
Doug
Michael Perelman wrote:
>What does this mean?
>
>On Fri, Jul 09, 2004 at 11:09:10AM -0400, Doug Henwood wrote:
>> At 11:02 AM -0400 7/9/04, Lakshman Achuthan wrote:
>> >The rise in the WLI looks like a reprieve for the week, but does not change
>> >what I said yesterday. We are clearly in for a deceleration of economic
>> >growth towards longer-term trend growth.
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>Michael Perelman
>Economics Department
>California State University
>Chico, CA 95929
>
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>E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
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