On Sun, 25 Jul 2004 11:19:24 -0400 Yoshie Furuhashi <furuhashi.1 at osu.edu>
writes:
> Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com, Sun Jul 25 01:57:22 PDT 2004:
> >The electoral horse race is a little like the price of a currency
> >between two countries. Sometimes it stays perfectly steady while
> >the underlying factors that should affect it (like the comparative
> >inflation rates, interest rates, growth rates, equity returns,
> trade
> >and fiscal position, etc.) are clearly going negative. What people
>
> >usually conclude from that is not that the underlying trends don't
> >matter anymore, but that the currency will fall -- the only
> question
> >is when.
> >
> >That is essentially the position Bush is when it comes to the
> polls.
> >The underlying trends in this case are not causal trends (as they
> >are with the currency) but more in the nature of weekly leading
> >indicator trends that have an excellent predictive record: net
> >balance of favorability, right track/wrong track question, and
> >approval/disapproval of various areas of policy, along with ratings
>
> >of which area of policy will most affect their vote.
>
> The underlying trends in this case are contributions in hard and
> soft
> money. Follow the monthly totals of hard money contributions to
> George W. Bush and John Kerry, and you'll see a reversal of fortunes
>
> beginning in March 2004; and Kerry has benefited from more than nine
>
> times as much soft money spent by 527s as Bush (cf.
> <http://montages.blogspot.com/2004/07/ruling-class-dumps-bush.html>).
>
> And I haven't even factored in organized labor's money and manpower.
I think it's fair to say that the returns are starting to come in from the US ruling class, and the message seems to be that they would prefer to see a new man at the top in place of Dubya.
> --
> Yoshie
>
> * Critical Montages: <http://montages.blogspot.com/>
> * Greens for Nader: <http://greensfornader.net/>
> * Bring Them Home Now! <http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/>
> * Calendars of Events in Columbus:
> <http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/calendar.html>,
> <http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php>, & <http://www.cpanews.org/>
> * Student International Forum: <http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/>
> * Committee for Justice in Palestine: <http://www.osudivest.org/>
> * Al-Awda-Ohio: <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio>
> * Solidarity: <http://www.solidarity-us.org/>
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