[lbo-talk] Why isn't Kerry surging past Bush right now?

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

B. wrote:
>Is it possible that F 9/11 is only reaffirming the views of those 
>who had already decided against Bush,

Fahrenheit 9/11's cumulative gross has now topped $100 million (David 
Germain/The Associated Press, "`Fahrenheit 9/11' Sets New Documentary 
Mark, Topping $100 Million ," <a 
href="http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/entertainment/index.ssf?/newsflash/get_story.ssf?/cgi-free/getstory_ssf.cgi?a0459_BC_Fahrenheit9/11&&news&newsflash-entertainment">July 
26, 2004</a>).  That's approximately the sale of 13.7 million tickets 
-- about 4.7% of the total US population of 293,848,244 ("U.S. 
POPClock Projection," <a 
href="http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/popclock">July 27, 2004</a>), 
which is to say, within the Ralph Nader range of popularity, which 
appears to have peaked at 5% in the June 3-6, 2004 Gallup Poll:
<img src="http://media.gallup.com/POLL/Releases/pr040713ii.gif">.

According to Sharon Waxman of the New York Times ("Two Americas of 
'Fahrenheit' and 'Passion,'" July 13, 2004), while "'Fahrenheit' did 
sell out some movie houses in Republican-leaning states and military 
towns, including Fayetteville, N.C., and Oklahoma City," there exists 
"a sharp geographical divide" between the audiences of Fahrenheit 
9/11 and The Passion of the Christ:

Nielsen EDI Inc., which tracks ticket sales, compiled data showing 
the 50 theaters around the country where each film earned the most 
money. . . .

The top theaters for "Fahrenheit" have been in urban, traditionally 
Democratic strongholds, including Manhattan, Los Angeles, San 
Francisco and the Bay Area, Chicago and Boston.

The highest grossing theaters for "Passion" were typically more 
suburban and far more widely dispersed, from Texas and New Mexico to 
Ohio, Florida and Orange County, Calif.

<img 
src="http://img78.photobucket.com/albums/v294/montages/040713-cul-clrMOVIEch.gif">

Cf. 
<http://montages.blogspot.com/2004/07/two-americas-of-fahrenheit-911-and.html>.

An op-ed in the New York Times says that one of the significant 
indicators of electoral fortunes is "the candidate-to-opponent ratio" 
in a party platform:

Another platform indicator is the candidate-to-opponent ratio. In 
1984, the Democrats, in their hulking platform, found it almost 
impossible to spell out their policies without reference to the 
Republicans. Ronald Reagan, for example, was mentioned 213 times, 
while Walter Mondale, the nominee, didn't come up once -- and he lost 
in a rout. Republicans tried the same tactic in 1996, singling out 
Bill Clinton 153 times -- and giving Bob Dole a paltry 45 mentions. 
If the strategy was to rally the base, it fell flat with the voters 
-- an important lesson for members of the "anybody but Bush" crowd, 
who trust hatred of the president, and not support for John Kerry, to 
ensure a Democratic victory this year. (emphasis added, Peter 
Buttigieg, Peter V. Emerson, and Ganesh Sitaraman, "Winning Between 
the Lines," July 10, 2004)

Now that the 2004 Democratic Party Platform "Strong at Home, 
Respected in the World" is available online, let's count how many 
times it actually mentions John Kerry and George W. Bush respectively:

Kerry: 22 times
Bush: 39 times

While Kerry's fighting chance is better than Dole's and Mondale's, 
that's not saying much about the virtue of the candidate this year or 
the party that chose him. As the platform index suggests, the 
strength of support for Kerry is barely half that of opposition to 
Bush.

Cf. <http://montages.blogspot.com/2004/07/its-hollow-party.html>.

The ruling class have dumped Bush, but the working class aren't so 
enthusiastic about Kerry.
-- 
Yoshie

* Critical Montages: <http://montages.blogspot.com/>
* Greens for Nader: <http://greensfornader.net/>
* Bring Them Home Now! <http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/>
* Calendars of Events in Columbus: 
<http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/calendar.html>, 
<http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php>, & <http://www.cpanews.org/>
* Student International Forum: <http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/>
* Committee for Justice in Palestine: <http://www.osudivest.org/>
* Al-Awda-Ohio: <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio>
* Solidarity: <http://www.solidarity-us.org/>