[lbo-talk] Re: this minute's poll results

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Jul 30 14:40:53 PDT 2004


frank scott wrote:


>
>"Zogby Poll Shows Democratic Ticket Up 5 Points"
>Fri Jul 30, 7:08 AM ET
>
>if that's the best zombie and son can do, after their electrifying
>(to-the-dembots) speeches and hoopla, it looks bad...

According to ABC's The Note, the reliable polls won't be out until early next week. Rasmussen has a number out today, but it's mostly pre-speech.

<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm>

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry Updated Daily by Noon Eastern

Friday July 30, 2004--For the third straight day, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 45%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

While the television audience for the Democratic National Convention was relatively small, 67% of voters said that they followed news stories about the event either somewhat or very closely. This figure includes 78% of Democrats, 61% of unaffiliated voters, and 60% of Republicans.

Among those who followed the news "very" closely, 51% were Democrats, 25% Republican, and 24% unaffiliated.

Over the course of the past week, President Bush's Job Approval ratings have declined among women but improved among men. Overall, there is no net change. Also, over the past week, the nation's economic confidence has declined. The number of people rating the economy as poor has increased to 30%.

Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release data showing whether voters believe it is more important to finish the mission in Iraq or bring the troops home as soon as possible. The data will also show which of those priorities John Kerry and George Bush believes is more important.

Today's results are based upon survey interviews conducted Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights. Only a small portion of the interviews were conducted following Kerry's speech. Monday's update will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted following the speech.

Prior to last night's speech, most Democrats view their nominee as politically moderate. Republicans overwhelmingly consider the Senator politically liberal. We will check again next week to see if perceptions have shifted.

Following a review of our tracking data through July 15, the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows Kerry with a modest lead, 227-208. There are 103 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.

Next week, we will release a new wave of state polling data to update our Electoral College projections.



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