Looking at accepted figures for known reserves of oil, at first it is hard to see any basis for pessimism. At present rates of consumption there are 30 or 40 years' worth of oil known to be retrievable using present methods. But, say the pessimists, we have been consuming oil for over 100 years. What's left is only half of all the oil that ever existed, and the half way point is what matters. At the half way point, the argument goes, oil production will peak and then begin to decline. This is the 'big rollover'. Demand will continue to rise while supply falls, resulting in a permanent oil shortage.
How would we know we are reaching the half way point? There are two arguments: first, we can try to work out how much oil is left and measure it against how much has been used; second, we could detect a slowing down in the growth of oil production and project the figures forward to predict a peak. But neither of these methods are reliable.
The pessimists' claim that we know how much oil is left because known reserves amount to 90 per cent of all that will be discovered is also unduly catastrophist. It is a result of one-sidedly highlighting only bad news. For example, while it is probably correct that many figures for known reserves in the Middle East are politically inflated, it is also the case that, because known reserves are large enough for the foreseeable future and as a result of war and political instability, there has been little serious exploration in the Middle East for over 20 years. <SNIP> <URL: http://www.spiked-online.com/articles/0000000CA562.htm > -- Michael Pugliese