>Subject: [lbo-talk] Bush losing some of his base?
>
>http://www.tnr.com/blog/campaignjournal?pid=1709
>Campaign Journal
>
>05.28.04
>
>BUSH'S DETERIORATING BASE?: Pollster Stanley Greenberg has released
>an update
>http://www.greenbergresearch.com/publications/reports/r_still2americas052704.pdf
>of the data presented in his excellent book The Two Americas. One of
>his main findings from interviewing 8,000 likely voters between
>January and April 2004 is that Bush is suffering a small but very
>significant erosion among his most loyal supporters.<snip>
>
>
>These changes are illustrated by trends among rural voters, one of
>the core Republican groups discussed in The Two Americas. These rural
>voters, referred to as "Country Folk," represent 21 percent of the
>electorate. In 2000, 63 percent of Country Folk backed Bush. Yet
>today, only 58 percent support him and only 51 percent want to
>continue in Bush's direction; 47 percent want to go in a
>"significantly different direction."
>
>An overall drop of 5 points in the Republican presidential vote among
>these voters may not seem like a major shift, but in a country at
>parity it could provide the margin of victory. This impact is
>amplified by where the Country Folk live: they are concentrated in
>the battleground states, like Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana, New
>Hampshire and Minnesota.
>
>Greenberg's conclusion is that to win these voters back, Bush's only
>option may be to start emphasizing culture war issues like gay
>marriage and abortion. That's a trend to keep an eye on.
>
------------------------- Heh. Well, I was in rural Jefferson County Wis. today. Talk about "Country Folk!" Much of Jeff. Co, is in Tammy Baldwin's Congressional district. She does represent liberal Madison, but the district as a whole includes a lot of suburban and rural territory--it's actually pretty closely balanced, and not a slam dunk for a Dem by any means. After Robert Kastenmeier retired, the seat was held by a "moderate" Republican for 3 or 4 terms. Baldwin is the first openly gay person ever to be elected to a first term in the US Congress (all the others were outed while in office, and some were re-elected). The repugs have tried "cultural politics" against her, attempting to roll up huge majorities in the suburbs and countryside to overcome the Madison wards. They've tried it subtle and they've tried it blatant, all to no avail. Sure, the rural townships are more Republican, but not all of them by huge majorities. A number of them swung to Baldwin in 2002, when her opponent was a loud-mouthed gay-bashing minister. At least in that district, "culture war issues" haven't proven to be the key to electoral success.
It's a big mistake to assume that the enormous US "heartland" is one undifferentiated mass of booboisie. It's full of variety and local particularity, and what plays well in rural Texas where Rove comes from is not necessarily going to fly in Minnesota or New Hampshire. The gay-bashing/anti-choice theme alone won't hold the rural "base" everywhere.
Jefferson County, btw, was the scene of a long and bitter strike by the UFCW against Tyson, as laborites and labor-watchers here will recall. The strike ended in February (and the union lost), but numerous hand-lettered signs supporting the strike (e.g. "Don't Feed the Tyson Greed") are still standing along rural highways in that area. From 1932 to 1972, Jefferson had a Republican "persistence rate" in presidential elections of 73%, with an average Republican majority of 54%. (Compare that to Walworth County immediately to the south, with Republican persistence of 100% and an average Republican majority of 65%). Those percentages have held up in the 30 years since, though i don't have the exact figures handy. Jefferson County was solid for Bush in 2000, but only by the historically average margin. I think it will be closer this time, partly because of memories of the strike, partly because of the ongoing squeeze-out of smaller dairy farmers. My instincts say this "swing state," with its many rural and small town voters, is trending Dem, and that Feingold is a slam dunk.
Jacob Conrad