>On Fri, 11 Jun 2004, snit snat wrote:
>
> > I think the problem is this: he's saying it's not an epidemic. You know
> > what an epidemic is--everyone is catching it. He's saying that the
> > numbers suggest that the fatsos are just getting fatsoier, not that
> > everyone is getting more fatso (or catching it).
>
>Right. But he's wrong. If he was right, the average would change but the
>median would stay the same. Instead, the median has changed, as he
>himself admits.
>
>The way in which he dismisses the change in the median shows he has no
>knowledge of what median means or of what counts as statistical
>significance. He must, you'd think, in his own microscopic work. But
>this is what comes of having no practice in macro statistics. You can make
>the most elementary mistakes and not know it.
huh? the word median doesn't occur in that article. the word "average" does. the _average_ has increased by 7-10 lbs. but as we know, the average can move up and down if there is a few pulling it up or down. He's not reading the data weirdly. It's in black and white. He's saying that the slim and normal have stayed around the same. The people at the higher end of normal, the overweight, and the obese have all gotten fatter.
>Now for his argument to hold, the 25% who are obese would have to have
>increased their average intake by 40% and everyone else stayed the same.
>You think that's true? Go find the stats to support it. He certainly
>hasn't. He's just riffing off the top of his head.
huh? he didn't say this at all. he said the already OVERWEIGHT got more OVERWEIGHT. If it was tupical to be 20 lbs. overwtight, now it's typical to be 40. The obese are defined as 50 lbs overweight. If it was typical to be obese and weight in at 65 lbs overweight, now it's typical to be 90 lbs overweight, pushing you toward morbid obesity. The overweight are more overweight. The people at the high end of normal, pushed over to the overweight category and the people who are overweight, pushed over into obese.
He's saying that when you compare normal people in 1991, they weighe the same as normal people now. The "normal" hasn't all of a sudden gotten to be 10 lbs. more. The heavier are heavier. The obese are obeser! :)
"We're in a fucking stagmire."
--Little Carmine, 'The Sopranos'