Australia maintains only a token force in the country, Latham is proposing to withdraw merely a few troops involved in training. The air force personnel doing air traffic control will probably be replaced by indigenous controllers by then and Latham seems likely to keep some troops there to guard the embassy.
So Latham's "troop withdrawal by Xmas" is as token as Howard's "stay the course". The only significance is rhetorical. But the furious abuse from Washington indicates just how important rhetoric is. To Bush, obviously, Latham's token "withdrawal" would re-inforce the impression that the US is politically isolated, something Bush may well be sensitive to. (Though it is something of a surprise that anyone in the Bush administration is smart enough to figure out the danger.)
However it would seem to be in Kerry's interests that Bush does appear to be isolated. After all, if the Bush White house can't even keep sycophantic allies like Australia in line, then it would be easy to portray the administration's foreign policy as the most bungling and incompetent in US history. So I can't work that out, is the fellow determined to cover Bush's weakness?
But all this haranguing of Latham from Washington seems a bit risky. The more strident the tone, the more difficult it would be for Latham to quietly reverse course. Even the Australian Labor Party has to maintain some semblance of self-respect. It can't be seen to be obviously grovelling to the American tune, so whereas Latham might very well have changed his line after being elected, that now seems politically impossible.
And self-interested lectures from Washington are unlikely to hurt Latham in the polls and thus make the more obsequious John Howard more likely to win. (Even the most partisan of anti-Labor Australians might be likely to decide that Latham, although a political menace, is at least OUR political menace.)
Frankly, I never cease to be amazed by the incompetence of the Bush White House. I guess that's the big problem with having overwhelming military superiority, no-one ever thought it was necessary to teach elementary diplomacy, given that they have such a big stick. They expect they can just stamp about the world proclaiming that resistance is futile and rudely demanding that everyone follow their orders.
Another reason to keep Bush in office for a few more years. Although perhaps Kerry is nearly as stupid, by the look of things.
Bill Bartlett Bracknell Tas
PS: Nobody would ever have expected ME to be lecturing anyone about diplomacy, hardly my strong point. But those clowns in Washington nearly make me look good. Mind you never practise what I preach.,