Nader Goes Buchananite (Re: [lbo-talk] Vote Nader/Camejo 2004!

Michael Pugliese michael098762001 at earthlink.net
Wed Jun 23 18:07:09 PDT 2004


"R">...i forwarded a poll which indicated nader is drawing votes from both kerry and shrub. almost in equal measure.

These polls show that 2/3 of Nader supporters, in the absence of Nader, would vote for Kerry.

Did not know Mother Jones paid for a poll.


>http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. June 17-20, 2004. N=1,015 registered voters nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS.

."If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, or Ralph Nader, the independent?" If undecided: "Which one are you leaning toward?" Names rotated. Trend includes variation in wording.

George Kerry Nader None/ No

W. Bush Wouldn't Opinion

Vote 6/17-20/04 44 48 6 1 1

Asked of Nader supporters and undecideds: "If Nader does not run or is not on the ballot, for whom would you vote: Bush or Kerry?" If undecided: "Which one are you leaning toward?" Names rotated. 6/17-20/04 Bush Kerry Neither Wouldn't No

Vote Opinion

45 53 1 1 -

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. June 14-19, 2004. N=807 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5. (For the following polls, I'll just mention if they give significant demographics. This one has a gender and geographical breakdown. Click http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm )

The Harris Poll. June 8-15, 2004. N=991 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample) Here Nader support is dropping.

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. June 3-13, 2004. N=1,426 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. (Again, as in the ABC/WaPo poll, Nader supporters if Nader was not in the race, take much more from Kerry's base vs. Bush.)

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). June 6-10, 2004. N=1,016 likely voters nationwide. (Stan Greenberg?)

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 8-9, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. (Again Nader hurts Kerry more than Bush.)

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. June 7-9, 2004. N=788 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (total sample). (Includes names of potential running mates.)

The Los Angeles Times Poll. June 5-8, 2004. N=1,230 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. (Drudge Report jumped all over this one for oversampling Democrats.)

The Gallup Poll. June 3-6, 2004. N=599 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

Zogby International Poll. June 2-5, 2004. N=950 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

Time Poll conducted by Ken Dautrich and Chris Barnes of the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut. June 2-4, 2004. N=880 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.7. (Only poll so far to have Bush ahead. Again, w/o Nader, Kerry picks up the bulk of Nader's support.)

American Research Group Poll. June 1-3, 2004. N=770 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

Quinnipiac University Poll. May 18-24, 2004. N=1,160 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9.

CBS News Poll. May 20-23, 2004. N=923 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample). (Here Kerry has a big lead over Bush. Kerry/McCain asked.

Mother Jones poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). May 17-22, 2004. N=1,007 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. May 13-14, 2004. N=832 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4 (for all registered voters).

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. May 12-13, 2004. N=563 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.1.

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). May 10-13, 2004. N=1,016 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, boy they're busy!)

Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R). May 3-6, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

.

Michael Pugliese



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