Isn't the problem more than when we reach the peak output will begin to fall and drive the price up rather quickly more than we are about to run out of oil? Less scarcity than a perception of such. That is my understanding…
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Yes, this is my understanding as well. As you (and Wanzala) say, the matter at hand, from the Peak Oil POV, is not running out of oil, but there not being enough for the growing number of customers trying to get their petroleum fix.
Of course, the customer list includes not only aggressive commuters in V12 Dodge Magnums (such an insane vehicle) but firms that make all forms of plastic and energy utilities with fossil generation plants and so much else that makes the 21st century different from the 11th.
So, the argument goes, you’ll have a petroleum supply crisis even though there are still pumps pumping and refineries refining. The current production and distribution system seems adequate enough, but will be in a state of entropic fly-apart as it’s stressed beyond its design parameters and cannot scale to de-stress because supply is what it is.
True? I’m not a petroleum geologist and cannot intelligently analyze the data. However, this is a much more interesting hypothesis than merely saying we’re going to run out of oil someday (which even the burned out Ozzy fan at the end of my block realizes – though much else escapes him) and deserves a serious going over.
The fewer alarmists on the case the better since their other preoccupations will tarnish any investigative enterprise.
.d.