>But it runs into trouble when
>applied to the planet as a whole because we can't be
>certain we've found all the major petroleum reserve
>sites.
>
>.d.
You can never know for certain that there is not another undiscovered oil reserve. You can never know for certain that something will NOT be discovered. If that is the proof you seek it will never happen even after every last drop of oil "seems" to have extracted. Guess work is all that exists in this field but the idea that there are major undiscovered reserves that could dramatically effect the coming peak oil production is rather small. If found, a few decent size reserves may delay it for a decade at most but that peak is inevitable. Unless of course everything geophysicists believe about how oil is formed is incorrect. It is possible, but highly unlikely given what we know. There is certainly more "wiggle room" on a planetary scale than on the scale of just North America but that is because of the increase in unknowns. It doesn't invalidate the whole idea. The unknowns are simply not likely to be large enough. I'm not certain why this is such a controversial idea. Do some people think there would never come a peak in extraction or do they just figure nothing that bad is going to happen within our lifetimes? We have rather compelling evidence that this peak will occur between 2004 and 2015. Does anyone have any evidence that is anywhere near as compelling that this is not true. The data that make up known oil reserves is a little politically motivated but it isn't likely to be off by a tremendous amount. Much like it used to be with anthropomorphic climate change, being a skeptic apparently makes some people feel that they are distancing themselves from crackpots. Just because some crackpots are making wildly unjustified claims about the "end of oil" doesn't mean that it won't happen or that it can't happen now or soon. I'm surprised that on this list there is as much resistance to this idea as there is. It isn't like claiming that demolition charges are what really toppled the World Trade Center and then showing "proofs" by some structural engineer. The oil peak has become rather a more mainstream idea in geology circles. Someone here said they would bet it wouldn't happen in the next 10 years. I'll take the bet. How much and how in the hell do you collect on a bet made on-line?
John Thornton