[lbo-talk] End of Suburbia: Peak Oil

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Jun 29 10:15:37 PDT 2004


martin wrote:


>I'm not sure that I heard a definition of 'it' (as in 'it wouldn't
>happen'). It seems to me that peak oil is when demand outstrips
>supply and price escalates to the point where economic growth ceases.

That'll do as a definition. Or, more rigorously, I'll say that real oil prices (deflated by the U.S. CPI) won't exceed their 1980 peaks for a sustained period of six months or more any time in the next 10 years.

Doug



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