On Fri, 5 Mar 2004, Doug Henwood wrote:
> >Read this forum with Sarah Anderson, John Cavanagh, Doug Henwood and Jeff
> >Madrick, from the March 22, 2004 issue of The Nation.
> >
> >Toward a Progressive View on Outsourcing:
> >http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040322&c=1&s=cavanagh
I liked your piece a lot. You always have the clearest figures.
I have a couple question about manufacturing. You mention that manufacturing has lost 3.3 million jobs in the last 6 years, more than it did during the much more heralded jobs-going-overseas trend of the early 80s. Is it possible that this is the real offshoring story? I've haven't seen it ever it written up as a trend, but I've certainly seen numerous anecdotal stories to the effect that the real change in manufacturing in the last few years is that small manufacturers, sometimes owners of a single factory, have been able to outsource their operation to China, thanks to internet technology and a very developed body of middlemen. Previously only multinationals could do this because of all the expense and risk involved. But today, a factory that makes doorknobs on Long Island, say, is able to send its knobs to China and get back prototypes within a couple of months together with price and volume specs that are better than what they've been doing. They then close down their production here and just keep the sales office and brand going.
My impression is that this has been getting easier and easier -- that it's reached the point of mass adoption among small manufacturers and also among new manufacturers starting out. So that perhaps a sizeable portion of the missing manufacturing jobs might be accounted for by small manufacturers who laid off people when things got bad, and then, instead of hiring them back, decided instead to close production entirely, thereby increasing their profits and decreasing employment. Along with new small manufacturers who would normally be creating jobs in US but now are starting out from the get-go as offshore operations. It would be a factor in this cycle that wasn't there in previous cycles.
I'm not saying it explains it all. But it seems like it might explain some, and that the numbers involved might be larger than those involving service job offshoring. But like I've said, I've never seen this story presented as an explanation. So I was wondering if there was something in the numbers that make it impossible?
My second question had to do with your suggestion that most of the layoffs in manufacturing during the last 6 years had to do with increases in productivity in manufacturing. I thought you didn't buy that there was big increases in productivity in manufacturing outside computers over the last 6 years?
Lastly, I was wondering about the numbers of manufacturing jobs in China. Is there anyway to distinguish the state sector job gains/losses from those in the private sector? Otherwise I can't see whether its possible to see whether China is a net gainer of jobs or not.
Michael